Updated: Friday November 14, 2003
|
Updated: Friday November 14, 2003
|
|
|
Subscribe to Inside Report (Click Here) Join in discussions about economic matters by Clicking Here
Asian Navies: India Ascendant?
Every once in a while, the universe sort of whacks me 'upside the head' and says, "Here's something to ponder." This morning for no particular reason, two news items about India's naval forces caught my eye and left me with a big "huh?". First there was the story about Indian naval forces conducting a joint exercise with China. The BBC story at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3267731.stm would have been a complete yawn, until I ran across a story on the English pages of Pravda which went into considerable discussions about the ins and outs of India buying a Russian aircraft carrier http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/357/11267_aircraft.html. So we can take these two small and apparently isolated stories and ask a very important question: What's driving the build up of India's navy? There are plenty of possible answers, including wanting to provide protection from nearby Islamic countries, or perhaps wanting to insure that she doesn't become embroiled in "collateral action" when China invades Taiwan, which we view as inevitable. This fatalist outlook is further reinforced by news of Taiwanese arrests of two suspected Chinese agents reported at http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storyprint.cfm?storyID=3534257.
If we squint in a particular way, we can see global power heading west to Asia - obvious for 20-years - but now with all the job jacking by Asian industry, we can view a future where India and China will take over the power roles held by Europe and the U.S. in the first half of the 20th century. It's a slow motion process to be sure, but with U.S. forces more of less constantly busy, India is making serious preparations to defend herself on all fronts, especially Pakistan, and by extension, Muslim countries to her southeast. And remember, India has nukes. As the late Senator Scoop Jackson once told me, "If you have an aircraft carrier and a few nuclear weapons, you can project power." Seems like India's new course.
Speaking of Asia and China: You saw Wal-Mart missed expectations by a penny? http://www.nypost.com/business/10773.htm What's more, they're sounding Grinchy about Christmas.
Cars & Oil
Japanese car makers (once again) have the drop of Detroit for the Nuevo Rich (or at least middle classes) of China and India while European car sales generally suck - adding more weight to our Asia Ascendant theory: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3269829.stm. And the Asian car sales (along with weather) keeps a floor under oil prices: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3534177&thesection=business&thesubsection=markets
Of course we knew the oil picture in Iraq would not improve any time soon, so on top of the $87.5 billion which you gave Iraq, you generous taxpayer, you, and the $30-$40 billion spent so far, we note this morning that the oil industry will need at least $5 billion to get oil flowing: http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=237F27C3-5CE4-41F8-AC269AC89A65BB6D&title=Iraqi%20Oil%20Industry%20Needs%20Major%20Investment%2C%20say%20Analysts&catOID=45C9C785-88AD-11D4-A57200A0CC5EE46C&categoryname=Business
Blow
Big windstorms across much of the national yesterday - with many still without power today. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031114/D7UQ5RPO0.html. If you think this weather is freaky, check back in 2-weeks when the sun completes its rotation and the source of that X-28 (or was it really X-50 as first reported) flare comes over the limb. More flares and solar activity means more extreme weather...
Epidemiology 101
It's not every day that I recommend a book along with a news story, but here's the background: When we were living on our sailboat, one of the books I selected for our "round the world trip" (that we didn't get around to) was "Control of Communicable Diseases in Man". The original book was edited by Abraham Benenson. More recently, the book has been published by the American Public Health Association and edited by James Chin. OK, fine, so what, you may be asking. Well, there's an interesting hepatitis outbreak up in Pennsylvania which has caught our eye this morning at http://www.timesonline.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=10506374&BRD=2305&PAG=461&dept_id=478569&rfi=6 where 340 people have confirmed cases of Hepatitis A. This book is an invaluable companion to news junkies, because it is sufficiently detailed - a couple of pages for each disease covered - yet it's short enough and pithy enough that it's not boring. So if you want to be a knowledgeable reader of today's events, I'd suggest the book as ongoing brain food. Example: If you want to know more about Rabies when you read a story like http://www.healthcentral.com/news/NewsFullText.cfm?id=516045 you can find the natural reservoirs of the disease in the APHA's CCDM...
Predicting 100,000 Dead
The latest rant from al Qaida reported by http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_2.html. Again, if America were attacked with a biological like small pox - the above mentioned book would prove useful.
I.D. Outrage
I suppose you already know that I've been thoroughly disappointed with the efforts of the U.S. Border Patrol to seal up our southern border. It's been made worse by Mexico issuing documents to their nationals living in the U.S. And then adding insult to injury we read this morning that a large number of Latin American countries are planning to follow suit: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A36511-2003Nov13?language=printer So, how to fix? Simple: Team up Postal Inspectors with Border Patrol agents. Figure out what the outrageous documents look like and which postal facility they're coming in through. Then, it'd be simple enough to confiscate all the documents, go to the addresses they're being mailed to and then throw the illegals out. Of course, we know this won't happen because too many businesses depend on exploiting cheap labor...but still, it would be the right thing to do. I know, I know...forget about right, forget about laws on the books - let's just spend money on "monkey motion" to give the appearance of action... [Ok, off the soap box]
Friday Favor: I'm pretty serious about building the readership of this site.. I'd really appreciate it if you would click the link below and tell a few friends about this daily update. I've purchased more bandwidth - and sometime in the next two weeks, this site will move to an even faster server at our hosting center... Thanks - I appreciate it.
One last thing: Keep watching gold...it's still knocking on $400's door. Meantime, that little penny stock MNMM.OB that I told you I bought at $0.90 and sold at $1.20 is now $5.65! Here, let me turn around and you can kick me a few times...
Click Here to Tell a Friend about this Site! Or better yet, Click here to Subscribe!
Thursday
$400 Gold: $2.60 To Go
You might keep an eye on the price of gold today and tomorrow as $400 might be broached. As you can see by the link to Kitco above, gold had (as of this morning's 7 AM EST writing) only $2.60 to add to the intraday $397.40. Whether it makes it today, tomorrow, next week, or the week after, is of almost no consequence. Remember that the price of gold doesn't really go anywhere - the value of the U.S. dollar goes down. That's the "big lie" about inflation that people get so confused about and it's a big lie that keeps government in power, and able to raise our taxes and so forth. The evidence of that is overwhelmingly obvious: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28252-2003Nov11?language=printer
To be sure, we will see minor fluctuations where the dollar will be said to "rise" slightly on foreign exchange (the money trading "forex") markets, but the fact is that assets denominated in U.S. dollars go up less on financial strength than on inflation. No question about Fed policy in here: They're printing money like crazy and trying to keep rates low so the paper can be "borrowed into existence". What's more, Chicago Fed Governor Michael Moskow says this morning that he looks for rates to continue low: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=3812822.
One other anecdote: I periodically ask the mortgage brokers in the elevator at work how things are going in their business. "The refi's are about dead," one told me riding up in the elevator yesterday. "But, God, are people buying home like crazy all of a sudden..." No wonder: The end of low rates is clearly in sight, and the timing on our purchase of the Texas ranch looks about spot on. Our advice to anyone looking at buying property continues to be: Look for dual use. Try to get something with enough land to grow food on, because that's bound to be a critical commodity all over the planet as extreme weather and stagflation continue.
Speaking of Weather
You did hear about the freak hail storm in Los Angeles yesterday? http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,102956,00.html Less extreme but still notable, was the windstorm through the Windy City (Chicago) yesterday: http://cbs2chicago.com/illinois/IL--WindyWeather-in/resources_news_html
Airline Gimmicks
On my transcontinental jaunt to the left coast and the Republic of California last week, I failed to mention that I rode from LAX to Fort Lauderdale on one of Delta's rebranded "Song Airline" jets. Leather seats (like Southwest) and no video. I thought Delta was alone in trying to be cutesy with their "fly for a song" attempt, thinking that someone had just rediscovered the classic Trout and Reis book "Positioning, the Advertising Battle for your Mind". Whatever the source, we read in the NY Post this morning that United is rebranding a cheapy version "Ted". http://www.nypost.com/business/10668.htm. Next thing you know, Southwest, which sort of owns the category right down to the leather seats, will change its name to SW.
Aye Wreck
Yeah, it's still there, still a mess. Remember a month or two back when I told you that it was puppy droppings to give the appointed new government 6-8 months to come up with a "new" constitution when what they need is less talk and more action to get the country squared away? I think I suggested there are enough constitutions around that they could translate one in a day or less and get moving. Well, it's dawning on others too, like the CIA for one, that what's needed is (feign surprise here) more rapid progress on installing the new government. http://www.itv.com/news/833333.html
Middle East Stew
The U.S. was not justified attacking Iranian oil platforms in 1987-1988 says a world court, but we didn't break a commerce treaty either: This is a complex and almost completely overlooked story at http://www.asil.org/insights/insigh119.htm. Obviously Washington will not be pleased with that, but the shakers may be too busy whipping up fears about Iranian plutonium production to notice. The UN and the US are squarely at odds over Iran now http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3266927.stm. Meantime, the White House has given in on the 9/11 panel demands to turn over documents http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3266309.stm but who knows what's missing, redacted, or replaced more than two years after the event!
Terror Forecast
Our colleagues at www.halfpasthuman.com provided a small web bot run focused on today's date, results below. The gist of it is that today doesn't look especially worrisome, but later in the month, around Turkey time, looks more ominous. Again, web bots are sometimes precisely right (as they were with the NE Power Outage), but the hard part is interpretation. Here's a sample of reader guesses on what the bot runs might be hinting at:
"serious possibility that Cheney might become president around Dec. 10, 2003"
astrologers are buzzing about it last 2 years
-----
The recent web bot report suggests the Capitol building, the Reflecting
Pool, and the Washington Monument to me. That's the place. The event?
Possibly some kind of a violent suicide action against the U S Congress and other Government offices?
I certainly hope not.
-----
I always think the webbot sounds like the I chi. But who knows but about the numbers:
00+08+10=18 1+8= 901+09+11=21 2+1=3
02+10+12=24 2+4=6
03+11+13=27 2+7=9
the sums go in sequence are multiples of three and the answers go in sequence as well. the series doesn't work if you go back to 1999. It is probably just a weird coincidence and I should get off the computer and do something useful.
-----
The US military did not invent Jessica Lynch as Rambo firing her weapon at the attacking Iraqis, killing scores of them before she went down. Now who do you think thought up that spin and required the military to go along with the story?
I wonder why General Franks, the hero of the Gulf War, made his decision to resign?
===
The above is from the site of the guy who insists that there will be blowback from the US CIA or other intel assets for the treachery of the Admin outing one of their assets.
There is now a "leaked" CIA report out there today somewhere stating that Iraq is a total disaster, and that Gyorgyi Porgi is the ringleader.
Any bot output interpretations will have to keep this idea very much at the fore.
-----
Possibly the destruction of the dome of the rock or the al Aqsa mosque by by Moslems, made to look as though the Israelis did it, or a cave in on the temple mount caused by weakening of the ancient walls by prolonged excavations by Moslems...
-----
The 2 small bowels suggests to me either 2 suitcase nukes or 2 bio/chem warheads. The links with antiquity lead me to think about this maybe happening in Jerusalem (there was a temple there) or maybe even in Baghdad (the green zone - temple of US power).
-----
My guess is a symbol of the Christian world where people congregate. A big target would be the Vatican. Perhaps someone who the Christians have in the past trusted has turned. The report suggests that the event will have a big impact. History show us that this can happen in two ways:
1. The death of an awful lot of little people
2. The assassination of some kind of big cheese
The method of attack indicated suggests 2 (unless the attackers have portable nukes).
-----
I believe this is the Temple Mount in Jerusalem There are two mosques there - the Dome of the Rock for women and the Al-Aqsa mosque for men (if I remember correctly). There is a major old medieval cemetery east of the Temple Mount. The neighbours (the Jews) have started revisiting the Mount in groups over the last two or three months. Sacrifices were offered daily, weekly and annually for hundreds of years while the First (King Solomon's) Temple and the Second (King Herod's) Temple stood on the Mount. If biblical predictions are correct (and they usually are...) a Third Israelite Temple will stand on the Mount in the near future.
Jesus said (in Luke 21) "Jerusalem shall be trodden down of the gentiles, until the times of the gentiles be fulfilled..." which implies that non-Israelite (gentile) structures/activity will continue in Jerusalem for an appointed/allowed period of time.
Major crowds of Palestinian Arab Muslims are at the Temple Mount each Friday during the month of Ramadan.
-----
The problem with the web bots (besides the small 2.11 million snip sample size) that the reference to temple and place of antiquity are distilled from hundreds of other words with similar meanings. It's like boiling off a gravy. So the "fit" could be something that physically looks like a temple, such as a Supreme Court building, a Capitol rotunda, or it could be metaphorical as in a large Wall St. firm that is a "temple" in the sense of money is a big religion metaphorically. Still, temple and mount do appear, and as we reported yesterday, the perpetrators of violence are not above manufacturing martyrs for their cause.
Meteor Showers
Should be interesting tonight and the first part of the Leonids come in - a double shower this year with coverage at http://spaceweather.com/
Illegal Aliens:
You know what's interesting? Russia has an illegal immigrant worker problem, too: http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/88/351/11255_labor.html
Subscriber's Choice
If you're a subscriber to Inside Report, I'm taking suggestions today for topics to be covered this weekend. Click here to send yours. I've always got a million ideas, but I really appreciate topic suggestions because knowledge and curiosity are well dispersed throughout humanity...suggestions are always welcome.
Wednesday
Limited Bot Run Pending: Check Back Frequently
We're not sure how it will work on very limited bandwidth, but you might check back several times today because if we get anything useful it will be posted both here and at www.halfpasthuman.com .
Terror Event Foreplay?
We mentioned yesterday the disturbing sequence of 01/09/11 (WTC), 02/10/12 (Bali) and wondered about 03/11/13 which is tomorrow. All of which I wrote off as an interesting coincidence due to normal nervousness from our perpetual war mindset, until I received this note from a reader:
The pattern did extend earlier. Don't know the significance, but I
couldn't find anything before 2000 in this pattern. The reason I would
count this attack was that I believe they exploded a hand grenade and waited for police to show up before they set off the car bomb. Waiting for Thursday!
Regards,
John
Indian police carry the body of an unidentified person killed in a car bomb in Srinagar, the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir in India August 10, 2000. A powerful car bomb exploded in the Kashmiri city of Srinagar on Thursday, killing nine people and wounding 25, including journalists, police said. It was the first major attack since the frontline Kashmiri militant group Hizbul Mujahideen ended a 15-day ceasefire in the rebellion-racked Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday. REUTERS/Fayaz Kabli (Reuters)
Not enough to be conclusive, but we could see a sequence of 00/08/10 (the Wahabi militant's favored number 19 if you add it up) then 01/09/11 (WTC), 02/10/12 (Bali) and tomorrow would be next in the sequence. Again, not a certainty, but something to watch.
For Travelers:
Might want to think about flying those red eyes again to minimize x-ray dosages due to solar activity in coming weeks:
:
Issued: 2003 Nov 12 1152 UTC:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/presto
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
Solar activity is expected to increase considerably. Most activity is expected from the east limb of the sun, where the sunspot groups responsible for the commotion during the second half of October will soon be returning. The first to re-appear (later today) is Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA 0484). This group generated 2 X-flares and more than 10 M-flares on its previous rotation. Although it appeared to be declining when rotating over the west limb, current EIT images clearly show it is still very active just behind the east limb. The solar wind speed remains high at more than 700 km/s. With the interplanetary magnetic field mildly southwards (at about -5nT), this has led to the expected minor geomagnetic storm conditions during most of yesterday's UT day. In view of the size of the coronal hole responsible for these perturbations, and because in addition a shock may arrive (late on Nov. 13) from the CME associated with yesterday's M1.6 flare we expect geomagnetic conditions to remain at active to minor storm levels for the next 48 hours.
Martyrs in the Making?
There's a Reuters report this morning claiming that militant Muslims in Riyadh planned to plant explosives in copies of the Koran in order to mobilize anti-West opinion: http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=402238§ion=news. This sounds a lot like the report from the Northeast Intelligence Network that we pointed out in yesterday's report (see below).
We were, according to this CNN report, a little quick in our judgment that good police work could outperform an army, as Saudi authorities have let it be known that they have no suspects presently being held in connection with the weekend bombing that killed 17 and wounded 117 in Riyadh... http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/11/12/saudi.explosion/index.html and http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA0M4F6XMD.html
Overnight, there was another huge explosion in neighboring Iraq this morning where CNN reports at least six were killed at the Italian police headquarters: http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/11/12/sprj.irq.main/index.html Even before this latest attack, Iraq Governor Paul Bremer was summon home, no doubt to talk about the multiple failures in Iraq http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAA6NS3XMD.html
General Wesley Clark is getting tired of the administration's failure to dig out Osama - so he's put a real plan on the table, not that anyone will take it seriously as reason seems to get lost during pre-election times: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAEOOX4XMD.html Still, got to give him credit for actual proposing something concrete instead of whining.
Oil UP
Rising prices are predictable, as the violence continues unabated in the Middle East, and the jitters of the market are accentuated. We see, for example that the price of gold is up a bit...and close on its heels, the price of oil - due in large measure to a prediction that winter in the industrialized world will be cold this year: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3798656 Following up on our coverage of the of the interest rate increases this week, the British Economist has a good analysis piece on interest rates: http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2188982
Trade War Loser?
Speculation in the NY Post's biz section this morning that President you-know-who has been backed into a corner and will not be able to protect jobs in the American steel industry: http://www.nypost.com/business/10581.htm. More job jacking to points overseas to follow
Poison Pill Works
Oracle's Peoplesoft bid is kaput: http://www.nypost.com/business/10574.htm
Around here:
Our J.S. Books site has been acquired by a large multinational company which believed it infringed on their rights to the term I used. We'll be spending this weekend. While I don't believe I infringed their mark, I've decided to rebrand everything as UrbanSurvival Books - which will take a few days. Yeah, I know, why not take on the corporate giant? Answer: I'm one guy and not about to take on a $23 billion multinational. What's the old saying: Better to be a live dog than a dead lion?
Tuesday
The Next Terror Event
There are multiple theories floating around the 'net about where the next terrorist event will occur. Some, such as this speculation piece from the Northeast Intelligence Network at http://www.hagmannpi.com/alaqsa.htm believe we will see an attack on the al Aqsa mosque, in a twisted replay of historical events. Others are predicting the continuation of the sequence 01/09/11 (WTC), 02/10/12 (Bali bombing), leaving 03/11/13 (This coming Thursday) as the expected date.
If we look closely, we can see how the "War on Terror" has really blurred around the edges of the public "mind". On the one hand, we see that when direct al Qaida actions are occurring, they seem closely tied to al Qaida supporters in places like Lebanon or Indonesia. Not from places where U.S. forces are engaged. At http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/11/11/saudi.explosion.int/index.html we see how the Saudis have arrested suspects in the case with no big military force.
We emphasize that in the case of the Bali bombing, and now in Riyaad, it looks like good, solid police work aided by intelligence efforts, not a commitment of large numbers of soldiers, tracked down the perpetrators. In short, if we lose the war on terror, it will be because committing excessive force creates asymmetry - and that's what guerillas require to succeed.
Yet despite this, we read this morning at www.debka.com that Israel is still grumbling around Syria harboring terrorist organizations, and hinting that they will invoke the right of self defense. And, at the same time, Secretary of State Powell is quoted at Aljazeera as making comments http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7D43BEDA-41D8-4A1E-9C48-EB86BDE8A70F.htm about the Islamic faith which are easily read as a U.S. attempt at driving a wedge between religious adherents and the government of Iran, which we read elsewhere has made small amounts of plutonium in its reactors.
Our expectation is that there will be another terrorist event at some point, but that the "spin" will be the same - a big military answer - rather than directly punish the perpetrators. Likely: U.S. Resource Conquistadors wanting oil and other rapidly diminishing resources, will use "terror" as an excuse to launch our ground forces against another resource critical nation - and if we bring back the draft on an emergency basis, that would help the unemployment numbers, too. We need to keep clearly in mind that a) there was proven linkage between Saddam Hussein and al Qaida, and b) that we were lied to by both Bush and Cheney about the reasons for the Iraq conflict. The WMD that's lose in the world is excess consumption.
The reason the U.S. is not pursuing Syria with the Israelis, or venturing into Lebanon where the Riyaad attack is believed to have been spawned, is that neither Syria not Lebanon have no resources worth fighting over. But Iran does have oil, as do a few other "tippy" Arab states, and to borrow a phrase from my late Danish grandmother, "That' makes it a different kettle of fish".
Trade War!
The price of U.S. goods in Europe will not be coming down, despite the pending decline of the U.S. buck. The reason? The EU and U.S. appear headed into a trade war. http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=462607. As usual, we don't take sides on much of anything, but it seems to us that there could be a silver lining to a tariff war: Our balance of payments deficit (which is unsupportable) could actually come down a bit from such a battle. Of course, that will just mean more work for China, and less work for American workers, but hey! This is not about fair, this is about money...
Global Inflationary Pressures
Several notes today. Irish Times is reporting German inflation ran 1.2% last month, which pushes them to an annual rate north of 12% - and supports our "stagflation" forecast. Along with that, we see that certain classes - or should we say castes - of workers in India are making great income gains as we read in the Hindustan Times at http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_454754,0002.htm. And consumer confidence in Israel is flat as reported at http://new.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=740420&fid=942.
Job Jacking
With things like the trade war shaping up in the background, we are not surprised to see rail giant CSX planning to ax up to 1,000 managers: http://www.nypost.com/business/10456.htm. Another article in the NY Post predictably links layoffs with the outbreak of the trade war http://www.nypost.com/business/10463.htm
Demographics
Russia's Pravda is bemoaning their latest demographic patterns, which if carried to nth degree would have Russia's population dropping to 55-million in 2075. http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/90/360/11247_population.html. What the Russians seem to ignore is that we will have likely blown ourselves up long before then, and if we don't, an errant planet, comet, asteroid, or plain bankruptcy of Social Security may take care of for most of us. Not my worry: I'd have to live to 126 to care about Russia's demography...
Markets
I think the decline we saw yesterday is the predicted beginning of the herd to move toward the exists. We may see it slow for a few days, but as people start reading their fund statements for the month, they will figure out what's going on. For subscribers, if you haven't read the in depth report of the week, you'll find it interesting: The Numerical Basis for American Revolution Two.
Pause a Moment
This is Veteran's Day. As one of Panama Bates favorite movie lines goes: "Somebody always stays behind. All over the world, somebody gets the job done." If they hadn't, we'd all be speaking another language: Russian, Japanese, German, or we'd still all be subjects of the Crown.
Monday
More Rate Hikes In Sight
This week, more background discussion of coming interest rate hikes are slowly percolating to the surface. While most people won't go looking for them, interest rate increases now, at this fragile moment in what could some day turn into an economic recovery, is an area that should be of vital concern. One backgrounder appears today in the International Herald Tribune at http://www.iht.com/articles/116968.html while there's an article about the next Australian rate hike at http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=9&u=/afp/20031110/bs_afp/australia_economy_031110083824 All of which adds up to continuing pressure on the dollar. Backing that up, several large brokerage firms are now talking about the Yen appreciating to 85 or 90 in the next year, which would be at least a 15% drop in the dollar's purchasing power, and a move that will effectively raise the price of everything Japanese that's imported here.
Lest you think I'm the only one pointing out the fallacy of the GDP and Productivity charade, as I did in last week's columns at www.urbansurvival.com/lastweek.htm I would refer you to Dr. Kurt Richebächer's comments at http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/richebacher111003.html for a similarly skeptical take on the "recovery".
Sun Chart
While the sun's active region is presently behind the sun's horizon, I thought you might find the following chart of interest - as it puts into perspective the size of that monster flare last week:
Not much you can do about it, though, except be aware that with output from the sun increasing, talk about "global warming" from man-made pollution is a little silly. Yeah, pollution contributes something, but when the output of the sun increases, mankind's contribution is pretty small in comparison. Speaking of celestial - new comet watching site to check out: http://ares.nrl.navy.mil/sungrazer/ if you're looking for Planet X. On the other hand, both SOHO and LACO are due to go down "for maintenance" in December, which causes us to wonder about the timing. Still, things have quieted down for now.
Veteran's Day Lacking Vets
Tomorrow's event will be lacking a number of parades, as there are not enough military people around to fill up the ranks, so many on assignment in the Middle East: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17283-2003Nov8.html Meantime, there's some discussion in the Christian Science Monitor about the lousy state of veteran's benefits: http://www.military.com/NewsContent?file=FL_benefits_111003 And yes, I do believe that folks like my brother-in-law who did over 1,000 jumps, including two combat tours in 'Nam deserves more than the just over $1,000 a month he gets from 20-some years as a Ranger & Special Forces vet. Of course, none of the politicos wants credit for screwing the retired vets by reducing their pay...
Meantime, Back at the War:
Besides the bombings in Saudi Arabia over the weekend, there has been a renewal of the U.S. air strikes in Iraq, going after pockets of resistance in the country: http://www.nypost.com/news/worldnews/10405.htm.
The presumed al Qaida attacks in Saudi Arabia this weekend pose a difficult set of choices for the administration. The opportunity to wage a broader war now encompasses Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Speaking of which, Israel according to one report, is about to take on Iran by itself: http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=348730&contrassID=1 although the CIA is putting out hints that the US may help out: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2003/11/10/2003075326
With so many opportunities to open new fronts, where will we begin? In an insightful (20 page) report at http://www.freedomforceinternational.org/futurecalling4.pdf, G. Edward Griffin sees the Middle East as a showdown between Leninists on one side and Fabians on the other. Griffin is the author of "Creature from Jekyll Island" which fills out the background of the private banking charade known as the "federal reserve, and his thorough research is always worth the time.
Around Here:
I straightened up the library a bit at www.urbansurvival.com/library.htm - and there are some additional 6-month old issues of Inside Report available for non-subscribers. Better late than never, I figure.
Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it...
All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted
