Replaying 1929 ?  
Updated November 2, 2001    6:50 AM Pacific

   Final Bot Update   

I just got off the phone with the think tank and they  reported the latest outputs from
the web bots.  Some significant shifts have occurred overnight in the model
that are worth reporting today.  With the disclaimer that this is an
experimental method, that has yielded results in advance that could be
interpreted as "fitting" past events, but is running in a scaled down mode
due to resources, here are the highlights.

First, there has been a shift from Las Vegas to the Washington DC region.
There is almost no input now from the west and the event - whatever it is -
seems to have been in planning for only a very short period of time, about
3-days.  They now believe the phrase "soggy marsh" may be an indication of
Washington or the Chesapeake in the first outputs.  The kinds of phrases
that are now appearing seem to indicate the focus of the attack will be:

*     On children  (an large assemblage or group of children) - goal seems
to be to shock us at our core.
*    Commemorative meeting
*    On persons around children, meeting around leader
*    Will be an attack aimed at our core beliefs - not economic in nature.
*    Attack will come from the air and/or from the ground.  (Not sure if
this is food supply, or literally underground)
*    Timing is "darkness ascending" (waning of moon) - and time seems like
today or tomorrow
*    Magnitude of the event is likely to be on the order of 9/11
*    Possible biological attack with "breath", "vital organ", "removal of
stagnating", "his person soiled", and "spilled meal" being reported back.

If you were constructing the kind of event that would fit perfectly, it
would be something like a Veteran's Day observance in a stadium full of kids
with a meal included and notables like the President attending.  The attack
would come either through the water supply (below aspect) or above (aerosol
biological), or possibly through a food supply, and it would be in
Washington or NYC.

It feels to them like this objective would be to make parents afraid to
send their children to school and that while a gathering of 1,000 children
would be a "fit" the magnitude feels like something more in the 25,000 -
50,000 range.

Again, this is based strictly on output from a limited number of spiders and
we do not have the same kind of geographic precision that we had in the July
work when the larger model was running.  This is speculative based on
software outputs and we have no specific knowledge other than the web bot
outputs.  It is possible that once the attack occurs, the results won't be
noticeable for a week or so if biological agents are involved due to
incubation times.  However, if we were running security for key leaders we
would keep them away from gatherings of children till early next week and we
would focus attention on underground and air attacks on gatherings of
children (water supply or sewer accesses - things like that).

It seems possible this shift may be in reaction to California putting massive security on bridges at the behest of Gov. Gray Davis.  Bridge attacks, particularly on SF would have been a good fit with the original model output.  If there is a biological attack, it may not be visible for a week or more.

  Dueling Bots?     We Sweep Chinese Bots!

Urban Survival's "think tank", a small leading edge software engineering firm in the Pacific Northwest, has encountered Chinese web bots that are running the same kind of language sweep missions that we've been using to scan large portions of the Internet looking for subtle shifts of language that may precede attacks and they are reporting back their results to China!  Here are the highlights:

Attn:  If you are a .MIL user, and in a position to use a more detailed analysis of the Chinese bots, including some of their source code (which was swept by our bot), please send an email from your .MIL address and verifiable on base telephone number and I will forward it to the appropriate party for action. Also available to .MIL users of appropriate level is a draft 9-point plan to defeat Wahabites which includes a special assessment of four strategic vulnerabilities and five recommended points of attack.  Because of the sensitive nature of this information it will only be shared with verifiable U.S. .MIL respondents.   I may be reached at 619-813-0893. 

  WEB BOT UPDATE:   Full Moon, SW, Highest Risk 

Latest output from the web bots is simple and to the point:

watch out west and south
fire illuminating the mountain
and full moon ( thurs - sat).

Entities (in the model) are still focusing on the Las Vegas area.  Although this does not rule out an attack on the Yankees game, or a nuke against Chicago, the bots seem to be pointing to the Southwest.  More as soon as developments warrant.  Please check back often.  -GAU

Terrorist Bulletin  

Attorney General John Ashcroft and FBI Director Robert Mueller have just announced that the country should be on the highest state of alert because of what is termed a new "credible security threat".  The press conference, which was delayed getting underway from it's scheduled 5:30 PM EST, focused on the latest intelligence from a variety of sources.  'The Administration has concluded...based on information developed...that there may be additional terrorist attacks in the United States and against United States interests overseas in coming days" said A.G. John Ashcroft.

18-thousand law enforcement personnel has been notified to be on "highest alert".  Americas are being urged in the course of their normal behavor to report anything strange or abnormal to law enforcement agencies.  Governor Ridge has passed this on to the nation's governors, who are being asked to make sure their states are ready.  FBI Director Mueller says even though it is not specific with regard to target or method, the reports are credible.  Mueller noted that it's very difficult to react without specifics, but extra vigilance is necessary. 

"We believe this threat to be credible, and for that reason it should be taken seriously," said the Attorney General at the end of the press conference.

If you're a regular reader of this site, you know the web bots are 2 for 2 - and if this latest from the FBI and Department of Justice proves out, the model will be an amazing 3 for 3.  If an event happens, let's see how close it fits the web bot output (see the earlier posts below for details).

Be ready for anything, be calm, and have that week worth of food, water, and medicines at hand.  As a reader of this site, you've had nearly a week of lead time to prepare mentally and physically for whatever may be next.

  Monday Morning Update:   

There are three things that have come up this morning that you need to be aware of.  First, the U.K. paper, the Sun, has come out on it's front page and declares "This War is a Fraud!".  This headline is precisely the kind of "breaking ranks" that I referred to in the Sunday update.  Here's part of the  report:

The camps which the Taliban allowed bin Laden to use were emptied weeks ago. Moreover, the Taliban itself is a creation of the Americans and the British. In the 1980s, the tribal army that produced them was funded by the CIA and trained by the SAS to fight the Russians.

The hypocrisy does not stop there. When the Taliban took Kabul in 1996, Washington said nothing. Why? Because Taliban leaders were soon on their way to Houston, Texas, to be entertained by executives of the oil company, Unocal.

With secret US government approval, the company offered them a generous cut of the profits of the oil and gas pumped through a pipeline that the Americans wanted to build from Soviet central Asia through Afghanistan.

A US diplomat said: "The Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis did." He explained that Afghanistan would become an American oil colony, there would be huge profits for the West, no democracy and the legal persecution of women. "We can live with that," he said.

Although the deal fell through, it remains an urgent priority of the administration of George W. Bush, which is steeped in the oil industry. Bush's concealed agenda is to exploit the oil and gas reserves in the Caspian basin, the greatest source of untapped fossil fuel on earth and enough, according to one estimate, to meet America's voracious energy needs for a generation. Only if the pipeline runs through Afghanistan can the Americans hope to control it. 
The rest of the article at: http://mirror.icnetwork.co.uk/news/allnews/page.cfm?objectid=11392430&method=full

The second thing you need to know are the results of a "remote viewing" experiment that was done by Sean  David Morton.  In a newsletter sent out to subscribers, he reports the result of a technical remote viewing experiment:

However, the most horrific aspect of this vision, is that now we have a
prediction of which two teams are playing in the world series, where the
teams would play, when the teams would play and a very clear vision of a
terrorist disruption of the games. As it turns out, the first two games of
the series will be played October 27 and 28 in Arizona. Game 3 will be played
under a full moon, on Halloween, in Yankee Stadium.

Again, NYC crops up and there's some resemblance of a baseball stadium with a wagon (wheel) when viewed from the air, depending on stadium.  It's partly covered and close enough to the Harlem Meer (one-time marshland), so it would fit the web bot output.  Regardless of what you think of "remote viewing" as a technology, this technology is used by the military and seems to have a better track record than other approaches to seeing the future than things like tarot cards and so on.

Last, but not least, here's the most detailed case a reader has sent in explaining the substantial risk to power-generating facilities in the West:

          Per my email to you, I interpret the word-strings you listed to mean that there will be an attack on US hydroelectric facilities.  Specifically, I think the targeted facilities may be the Colorado River dams (Hoover Dam and Glen Canyon Dam).  Destroying one or both of these facilities would substantially reduce the flow of critical power and water to four states (California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado….and a bit to New Mexico as well).  Most importantly, it would deprive energy deficient and thirsty California of its two most important import requirements for continued economic viability….not to mention future growth.  If my thoughts are correct, and the terrorists succeed, then California will go down quickly (….and undoubtedly shortly thereafter into insolvency) and the US will soon follow.  Then the whole world economy will unquestionably have all pistons jammed in the downward position, locked into a bent camshaft.  Thus far the terrorist attacks have directly impacted the East Coast only and there has been no news whatsoever about any terrorist groups/cells in Western USA.  It is most unlikely that Osama Bin Laden has forgotten about Western USA….a target rich area, currently holding up the US economy, and inhabited by plenty of Muslims for the terrorists to hide amongst.  Additionally, California has a rather vulnerable economy that would be very susceptible to an attack of September 11th magnitude.  A successful attack of this nature would provide incredible force multiplication….exactly what the terrorists need if they are to succeed in their asymmetrical war against the US.

          My analysis is colored by the fact that I reside a few blocks away from (and above!) a reservoir dam that serves Vancouver, B.C.  So here’s my analysis of your data points:

WHERE

          GREAT POSSESSION:  The Hoover and Glen Canyon dams are undeniably “great possessions”, and they are significantly responsible for the success of an even “greater possession” of America….its largest city, Los Angeles.  Without these dams, the economic value of the Southwest is reduced.

                FIRE IN THE SKY:  These two dams are responsible for creating huge amounts of power that lights up the sky, as though it were “fire.”

          ON GUARD:  The dams are “on guard”, holding back the water and preventing it from flooding or dissipating.  They store the water, “guarding” the water for future power requirements and keep the water available to slake the population’s thirst.

          CLINGING:  The dams “cling” to the sides of the cliffs, holding back the waters.

          LARGE WAGON (ABOUT TO BE) OVERLOADED:  The power industry still talks with jargon harking back to the days of wood/coal (horsepower, wagonloads, carloads, etc.).  When power utilities are running short of electricity, they enter into contracts to purchase power other utilities around North America that have excess electricity….and then the contracted amount of electricity is “wheeled” through the various Public Utility Districts to the needy district.  It’s now early Fall, all of the Western reservoirs are still low, and there would not be enough power to “wheel” to the Southwest if the dams were knocked out.  Additionally, it’s unlikely the transmission system would be capable of supporting such an extensive, long-term “wheeling” of power that would be needed before the dams could be replaced.  Additionally, this area has a number of crossings in use for up to 150 years.  For example, Lee’s Crossing just below the Glen Canyon Dam has been in use since the days of horse-drawn covered wagons.

          ACTION OF WISDOM:  The Hoover Dam was built during the Great Depression and has long been viewed as an “act of wisdom”.  The water and power from this dam kick-started the economy of the Southwest before World War II, especially the Los Angeles area.  Without the Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams neither Las Vegas nor Phoenix could possibly have achieved their present success (and with the dams’ destruction….well, there go the cities).  And at the same time, they tamed a wildly rampaging river – the Colorado’s previous destructive power has now been bent to serve the needs of the people – an obvious “act of wisdom.” 

WHAT

          PRECIOUS SILK:  The hydroelectric dams have power plants with turbines and motors that spin out electricity as though it were “precious silk.”  Also, from the rim of the Grand Canyon the Colorado River far below often looks like a strand of “precious silk.”

          ADORNED WITH DEW DROPS:  The tops of the dams are adorned with lights that shine and twinkle like pearls…or “dew drops.”  Additionally, the dams usually have booms on the lake side to keep out debris from the turbines, and these also are usually adorned with lights.

          ADORABLE ENCHANTMENT:  The reservoir lakes behind the dams are truly enchanting….so much water in an area so ruggedly outlined by desert mountains.  A person could easily think he’s in a fantasy land, the area is so beautiful, “adorable” and “enchanting.”

          FIRE ILLUMINATES THE SOBER (SOMBER) OUTLINE OF THE MOUNTAIN:  The electric lights from the dams and their adjacent support and power generation facilities “illuminates” the “mountains” and gorges the dams “cling” to.  Especially at twilight and dawn, the “somber outline of the mountains” around the dams look as though they are on “fire.”

          NATURE’S SPLENDOR:  The reservoir lakes bring out “nature’s splendor” in ways that just the Colorado River could not.  And the River’s normal passage through the Grand Canyon defines the word “nature’s splendor.”

          LEAVE CARRIAGE:  Both the Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams have caused the waters of the Colorado River to “leave” the normal “carriage” of the river bed, and fill up the vast reservoirs behind the dams. 

          CLINGING:  The two dams are “clinging” to the sides of two mountains, “guarding” the gorge between them so as to cause the river water to “leave carriage” of the river bed and pile up behind the dams in reservoir lakes.

          EXAGGERATE SENSE OF BEAUTY:  The area of the Grand Canyon, between the two dams, has an incredibly “exaggerated sense of beauty.”  And the two reservoir lakes are similarly “beautiful” and “enchanting.”

          EXAGGERATED VARIETY OF BEAUTY:  Rafting through the Grand Canyon impresses a person with the “exaggerated variety of beauty” offered by the Colorado River Bed.  Additionally, the reservoir lakes juxtapose a large body of fresh water with a mountainous, desert environment that offers spectacular, or “exaggerated,” “variety of beauty.”

HOW

          FIRE:  An explosive of some sort will be used, which will be accompanied by “fire.”   Or….a “fire” could be planned as a precursor to the main event.

          CLINGING:  The attack will be concentrated somewhere along the line of dam attachment, or “clinging,” to the “mountain.” 

          FORCE:  The explosion will be very “forceful” and will then be aided by the power of the hydraulic head of the water behind the dam as the water “forces” its way through the damaged part of the dam (or around the dam, through the cliff).

          SUN EVAPORATES THE SOGGY MARSH:  The objective of this attack is to explosively, “forcefully,” get the water out of the dam reservoirs.  This will create hugely destructive floods all along the Colorado River (which might possibly “leave carriage” of its normal river bed at one point or another), and also empty the reservoirs.  There would not be water to power the generators, nor to quench the thirst of people and industry.  When it’s accomplished, all that would be left would be the “Sun evaporating the soggy marsh” of the once filled reservoir basins.

          OPPOSITION:  The dams “oppose” the flow of the river and thereby create the reservoir lakes.  Somewhere along the line of the dams, the terrorists need to find a point of vulnerability and then fatally weaken it – hydraulic power and nature will take care of the rest of their problem.

          DUALITY:  The attack will be “dual” in that both the Hoover Dam and the Glen Canyon dam will be attacked.  There will also be “duality” in the critical resources attacked – power and water.  There will be “duality” in the direct damage done – the resulting flood will cause incredible damage downriver, and then the drained reservoirs will deprive the area of needed fresh water.   And there will be “duality” in the use of “force” – the “force” of the dam structure meets and overpowers the hydraulic “force” of the water behind the dam.  Weaken the structure of the dam at a critical point where it “clings” to the “mountain” and the structure is negated, while the “force” of the reservoir water is multiplied.  Perfect asymmetric warfare!

          SIDE STREET:  The attack will come from a side path, or “street,” and will be directed at the seam where the dam joins, or “clings,” to the cliff wall.  Or….the attack could be directed at a side seam of weak rock (sandstone, etc.).

          CHARIOT:  A wheeled vehicle will be used in the attack.  It could be a service vehicle on top of the dam, or inside the dam.  Or it could be a truck (pickup or 18-wheeler) or a rail train.  Or a wheelbarrow on a narrow path leading to an already weakened, leaking seam of sandstone.

          TENDER MEAT:  “Meat” is a construction industry term used to refer to that part of a structure that has strength to it (as in “that post has got to have some ‘meat’ to it in order to support the load”).  The part of a structure that does not have strong structure to it is sometimes referred to as “tender meat.”  Therefore, the attack will be directed at the weakest point of the dam, at a spot where it joins to the cliff wall.  Very likely the attack will be directed at a weak rock seam that is “tender meat” compared to other rock layers that compose the “mountain” gorge wall. 

WHEN

          CLINGING:  The attack will occur when the weak point of the dam, where the structure “clings” to the rock wall of the dam, is at its most vulnerable point.

          FIRE:  The attack time may coincide with a “fiery” event, such as a preplanned “fire,” in order to get the terrorists and their explosives into, or onto the dam during the ensuing emergency.  For example, explosives could be loaded into an explosive vehicle disguised as a fire truck.  Or, a “fire” at or near the dam might be a signal to begin the attack, or to coordinate the attack on both dams at the same time. 

          HEAVEN IN GREAT MEASURE:  Probably refers to a celestial display, perhaps a full moon.

          WILL OF HEAVEN:  Probably refers to a religious belief, or the natural “force” of “nature.”  For example, it is the “will of heaven” (or “nature”) that water seeks its proper level.  The water in the reservoir behind the dam will flow through any damaged section of the dam and seek its new level in the natural “carriage” of the river bed below the dam.

          HEAVENLY FORCE:  The attack could occur at a time of maximum tidal influence (pull of the Moon and the Sun).

          VIEW FORWARD:  This indicates that there may be a new phase coinciding, or begun, by the terrorists in their next attack (on the dams?).  The terrorists expect something different to start happening….perhaps they expect this new attack will goad the US to do what they want it to do and begin a “crusade” against all Muslims.

          ORIGIN:  This indicates that there is a cycle of some significance (religious, celestial, seasonal, water levels in the reservoir lakes, etc.) that will be brought back to its starting point, the “origin,” at the time of attack.

WHERE (MODEL OUTPUT ON 10/21)

          LAKE OVER THE WATER:  This probably refers to the reservoir lakes behind the dams (“over” the Colorado River running below and in front of the dams), and most likely refers to the dam itself.  This could also mean that the attack will come via water, using the reservoir lake to transport the explosives.  Perhaps a large, explosive-laden pontoon boat will be launched from a boat ramp that used to be part of a “side street,” maybe previously used by horse drawn wagons in the previous century.  Then the boat, or boats will be maneuvered next to the most vulnerable point of the dam and detonated, USS Cole style (maybe during a pre-planned “fire” event to draw attention away from their terrorist purpose).

          OPPRESSION, EXHAUSTION:  The water in the reservoirs behind the dams is “oppressed” since it cannot freely flow down the river….and it’s waiting to be freed to continue its flow to the ocean.  Once the weak point of the dam is exploited, its purpose and structure will be quickly “exhausted.”

          BARE TREE:  The desert mountains and hills all around the reservoir lakes contain many denuded, or “bare trees.”  And there are dead “bare trees” under the water level of the reservoir as well.  This could also refer to a “bare tree” which marks the spot at one, or both, of the reservoirs where explosives are intended to be placed.

          GLOOMY VALLEY SEES NOTHING:  This probably refers to the “valley” beneath the reservoir waters behind the dam.  This water filled lake bottom would indeed be “gloomy” and would “see nothing.”  Therefore, this may mean that the explosive charges might be lowered into the water to a measured depth where the rock seam (where the dam “clings” to the cliff wall) is soft like “tender meat” – and the spot could be marked by a “bare tree.”  Another possibility is that the terrorists underwent SCUBA training and over a period of dive trips in the reservoir, have already planted the charges precisely where they should be placed….and are now just awaiting detonation.

          OPPRESSED BY STORE (STORAGE):  The water behind the dam is “oppressed” (cannot run freely down the Colorado River) by its “storage” in the reservoir lakes behind the dams.  The reservoir water is key to the terrorists success.  They likely will make their close approach via water, and will most certainly use the force of the hydraulic head to destroy the dam after they have exploited a point of weakness.

          THORNS AND THISTLES:  The point of weakness is probably denoted by the growth of “thorns and thistles” which would thrive on the small trickle of water that may currently be flowing through the “tender meat” layer of soft, or deteriorated rock.  This would be visible on the lower side of the dam – a quick survey (if not public plans of the dam) would give the distance below water that the terrorists would have to plant their charges on the other side of the dam (reservoir lake side, that is) in order to accomplish their purpose (and get the water flowing around the dam through disintegrating rock).

          CREEPING VINES:  These plants thrive in a shady spot, so there may be an area on the reservoir lake side of the dams that hides a tie-off, or tie-up pin, or some other point of significance to the terrorists.

Unless something remarkable comes in, this should be the last update prior to next weekend.  I wanted to make sure you had as much information and as broad a view of some of the data coming in as a response to the web bot output, well in advance, so that IF (God forbid) something really does happen later this week that fits with the model, this page will have plenty of supporting data and a high enough level of detail to that the validity of the web bot approach will be clear even to skeptics.

-George

  War:    Losing?    

Posted 10/27/01  I'm probably as patriotic as anyone you'll run into, but the signs of success are getting fewer and fewer between.  It started innocently enough: an errant bomb here and there.  Collateral damage?  Sure - and to be expected if you step on the tail of the mightiest country on earth.  Which they did.

The it became a little more apparent with the honest comments of Donald Rumsfeld - when he admitted in an interview that no, we might not get bin Laden in the end, but we would make the price of being a terrorist so high that no one would want to play that game.  But here, things took a nose dive.  The national (Eastern dominated) press began working their stories, and now, the reports are circulating that the war effort is in trouble.  It's even on the cover of Time Magazine this week with George W. on the cover.

To be sure, there are signs of discord in the Administration.  One side (HHS Secretary et all) doesn't seem to see precisely eye-to-eye with the other side (Gov. Ridge et al) about the precise nature of the anthrax that continues to turn up like headaches after a beer bust.

But now, there are foreign leaders starting to ask questions - and being asked - by the all-too-comfortable press.  Leaders like Blair are less sure, and Middle East allies are starting to look at things like the 50-thousand person demonstration in Pakistan put on by the Taliban's friends, and well, there are a few cracks in the wall beginning to appear.  Write down this prediction:  Some time in the next week, we're probably going to lose an aircraft.  I don't know if it will be an F-15 or a KC-135 gunship, but the air defenses of the Talibad have not been laid to rest, and until that happens, our planes are at risk - and it unfortunately becomes a numbers game at that point.  They're bound to get a lucky shot in, but with the press starting to think negatively one thing will probably lead to another and the war on terrorism will become a media frenzy.  No wonder Donald Rumsfeld is pressing people to come up with new ideas.

It is against this background that I posted the latest think tank output from the webbots this week.  In case you missed it, here's the webbot take on the next attack.

Where  (Phrases that may describe where the next attack will occur)

Great Possession
Fire in the sky

On guard

Clinging

Large wagon [about to be] overloaded

Action of wisdom

What  (Phrases that may describe what the target of the next attack will be)

Precious silk

Adorned with dew drops

Adorable enchantment

Fire illuminates the sober (somber) outline of the mountain

Nature’s splendor

Leave carriage

Clinging

Exaggerate sense of beauty

Exaggerated variety of beauty

How (Phrases that describe how the next attack may be carried out.)

Fire

Clinging

Force

Sun evaporates the soggy marsh

Opposition

Duality

Side street

Chariot

Tender meat

 When (Phrases that  describe when the next attack maybe carried out.)

Clinging

Fire

Heaven in great measure

Will of heaven

Heavenly force

View forward

Origin

There was some earlier output from the model on 10/21 that related to where the next attack might be centered

Where  (Phrases that may describe where the next attack will occur)

Lake over the water

Oppression, exhaustion

Bare tree

Gloomy valley sees nothing

Oppressed by store (storage)

Thorns and thistles

Creeping vines

I'll now summarize about 80 reader responses to the request for reader input on what this means.

First, the readers who responded think that the most likely targets are (in descending order):

Place Results

66

Pct

Orlando

10

15.15%

Las Vegas

9

13.64%

Chicago

7

10.61%

SF

7

10.61%

NYC

5

7.58%

WDC

5

7.58%

LA

3

4.55%

New Orleans

3

4.55%

Salt Lake

2

3.03%

Seattle

2

3.03%

Afghanistan

1

1.52%

OK, so that's 11, but I thought you'd like to know that using tactical nukes in Afghanistan was mentioned.  Now what will the next attack be?  Well, 72% of readers who read the web bot output thought it would nuclear, and the rest were surprisingly expecting a conventional or chemical attack, not a biological.  As far as timing?

Thirty-three percent of readers think it will come on October 31st and another 22% think it will be on November 1st.  Subscribers can click here for all the numbers and graphs: http://www.urbansurvival.com/inside/nloct26.htm and the data in spreadsheet form is at http://www.urbansurvival.com/inside/terror.xls

The readership seems to think that there's relatively little risk of attack during Ramadan, but Starting in the November 14-17 area, the risk goes back up.

In terms of narrowing down targets, I took a pass through the data by building a threat assessment matrix (impact/body count/certainty of outcome) and came up with the ordering of NYC, Washington, Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.  But, I eliminated NYC and Washington because they've already been targets.  My work was based on the assumption that the terrorists would follow GEM theory to attack the West: Governance, Economics, and Media.

Then I called the Think Tank's leader. 

They seem to think that LA or the Hoover Dam area are more likely targets because the objective of the terrorists (in their view) is to ruin our economy.  We don't know where the other plane(s) were going on September 11th  and if there were other cells operating.  But exaggerated beauty sure sounds like Hollywood or Las Vegas, and if someone could take out Hoover dam, then the infrastructure of several western states would be ruins.  Power, water, agriculture: the ripple effects would be messy. 

On timing though, they make the interesting point that in the lexicon (language) of the Afghans and Middle East peoples, there are thousands of worlds for astronomical events.  It's not the same as astrology but rather just noticing things - like where the stars were at the time of a particular defeat or the time of a country being founded and then looking for an opposing formation in the sky.  I didn't realize that of a typical 20-thousand word language there were over 1300 related to sky stuff.  They think the Winter Solstice (12/22 or 12/23) would be the most likely time, but the full moon in daytime is important and that's in a couple of days.

That's it.  If nothing happens, then this effort at prediction won't have born fruit.  Or, it may work out precisely, but like so many of the tipping point kind of events, it may not be visible until we're 3-months down the road.  Next week, back to a more market focused report. 

Be sure to Visit:

Treasury's Office of the Public Debt (Click here to get there): These folks in Treasury are one of the last bastions of candor in the federal government!

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All contents (c) 1998-2001 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted