Updated:
Monday March 19, 2004
"News with a
twist of money..."
|
|
  ![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif) |
Subscribe to Inside Report (Click Here) Join in discussions about economic matters by Clicking Here
A Personal Note
If you know of a company that is recruiting for an innovative sales and marketing professional (I possess an MBA in addition to proven success with turnaround situations), please send me a note by clicking here. Thanks!
Weekends: We feature more in depth analysis for subscribers who pony up the modest $30/year subscription fee. This weekend, for example we delve into pathetic growth of patents lately and interview a Midwest broker who is expecting Dow 700 by 2007-2008. For subscription info, click on over to http://urbansurvival.com/subscribe.htm and join up!!
Oil Reserves Shrinking
The Financial Times today is reporting what we didn't need to hear with gas at 13-year highs: Shell is reducing its estimated reserves - for a second time - and this will add to concerns that Peak Oil is here. The details at http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1079419747350&p=1012571727088 but the bottom line is reserve. This means that Shell has replaced only 82% of its depleted stocks in 2003, down from a previously reported 98%. What's worse - more admissions of a similar nature can be expected from other oil companies, which have to be eyeing the Feds circling Shell with some concern.
Taiwan's Close Call
The President and Vice President of Taiwan survived an assassination attempt overnight while campaigning on the eve of elections in that country - which China maintains is a rogue state of its own. Neither dead but the identity of the shooter is not known either, so we have to wonder whether China had a hand in this or if it was a home grown nut case. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3548893.stm The island nation's security is much tighter today.
AQ Net Tightens
A "person of interest" - perhaps OBL's #2 man - is at the center of fighting in Pakistan between US and Pakistani troops against tribal fighters in rugged countryside: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3548833.stm. The price of OBL's head has now been doubled - $50 million is the gong price now: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/BFB33EC1-08EA-4434-B175-3700D9A36D55.htm
Fallout and Fallout
Once again, the US is looking at the possibility that terrorists might explode a nuclear device in our borders. You'll need to put up with a short commercial to get to the story in the NY Times, but it's a good backgrounder: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/19/national/19NUKE.html?ex=1080277200&en=e0e70d58d50239e4&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
The other fallout story is interesting too. Hans Blix says the War on Terror may have actually increased the threat of terrorism, rather than reduce it: http://in.news.yahoo.com/040319/137/2c32t.html.
The U.S. handling of relations with Poland over the Iraq WMD claims is coming to surface: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E7C93230-7900-4F7E-ABFA-FF90C5437772.htm.
New Kind of Bank
The Arab world is opening a new kind of bank - called the "bank for the poor" http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/79164C8F-5A8E-44D5-BDD7-81AA3CDC4247.htm No word on how it will specifically work, but it appears to be something of the opposite of the predatory sub-prime banksters approach used in the U.S. and other Western nations.
Click here to tell a friend about www.urbansurvival.com
Thursday
PPI Numbers: Inflation at a 7.2% Annual Rate!
Here's the long awaited lowdown on the PPI. From the government figures
out this morning, ask yourself if these make sense:
Table A. Monthly and annual percent changes in selected stage-of-processing price
indexes, seasonally adjusted
______________________________________________________________________________________
| | | | |
| | Finished goods | | |
| | | | |
| |---------------------------------------------------------| | |
| | | | | | Change in | | |
| | | | | Except |finished goods| Inter- | |
| | | | |foods and|from 12 months| mediate | Crude |
| Month | Total | Foods | Energy | energy | ago(unadj.) | goods | goods |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
2003
Jan. 1.3 1.9 4.8 0.3 2.5 1.1 7.3
Feb. 1.2 .4 7.4 -.1 3.3 1.9 5.2
Mar. 1.3 .3 4.8 .6 4.0 2.1 13.2
Apr. -1.5 .8 -7.2 -.5 2.4 -2.3 -15.8
May -.4 .1 -3.1 .1 2.5 -.7 1.5
June .6 .4 2.9 0 2.9 .6 4.3
July .1 -.3 .5 .1 3.0 .2 -2.8
Aug. .5 .8 1.4 .1 3.5 .6 -1.0
Sept. .2 1.2 -.1 0 3.5 -.1 2.7
Oct. .7 2.1 -.3 .5 3.4 .3 3.1
Nov. -.2 -.3 -.9 0 3.4 -.1 .1
Dec. .2 .1 1.6 -.1 4.0 .4 2.2
2004
Jan. .6 -1.4 4.7 .3 3.3 .8 2.8
First things first. The total. 0.6% for the month is only about half of our predicted annual inflation rate for 2004 of 13% (based on a lot of hard work) but in an election year, we don't expect to see total honesty and transparency in numerical data controlled from the top. Notwithstanding the political point, the PPI is up in this reporting period at a 7.2% annual rate. Now let's ask some honest test questions:
Food: Did you see food prices go down 1.4% in the month of January? I did - but only because we moved from Boca Raton to rural Texas. No one I know saw anything they eat go down.
Energy: Did it go up 4.7%? That's way low. Has anyone told these good old boys that the price of oil is at record highs and it started up that path in December?
Except food and energy, you're expected to believe the finished goods were up year on year (YOY) 3.3%. Pass me the crack pipe, wouldja?
How do you make the stats look good when you don't like them? You change the reporting methodology:
Effective with this release, the Producer Price Index (PPI) includes
data for 65 resampled and 21 newly introduced industries classified
according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics periodically updates the sample of producers
providing data for the PPI to reflect current conditions more accurately
when the structure, membership, technology, or product mix of an industry
shifts. The first results of this systematic process were published in
July 1986. Subsequent efforts have been completed at 6-month intervals.
For information on specific index additions, deletions, and recodes
that are effective with this semiannual update, see the January 2004 issue
of the PPI Detailed Report or contact the Division of Industrial Prices and
Price Indexes, Section of Index Analysis and Public Information at ppi-
info@bls.gov or (202) 691-7705.
"Resample" means you can start over again in statistics - which may be what's going on here. On the other hand, we all know that steel prices were uyp 20-30% in January alone, based on numerous reports we have published previously including increases in rebar, piping for the fire equipment (sprinkler) business, and bulk steel. So, do you think they showed up in this report after resampling? From Table 2 at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t02.htm we note that construction equipment was up at a 9.6% annual rate (0.8% for the month). Things like that.
But where's the BIG HOLE in this report? Take the biggest increases and watch the weighting (see the Relative Importance column). Looking at Table 1 for this report at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm versus table 1 from December (2003) at ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/History/ppi.01142004.news we find that in the December report, when Finished Consumer Foods were up 7.7% from the previous year, their weighting was 20.672 but in the current report and with just one month the finished consumer foods up 4.1% from year ago numbers was weighted 21.479.; Beginning to see how this weighting stuff works?
Looking at Table 2 from this January http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t02.htm versus last January ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/History/ppi.02202003.news we can work out why our house rebuilding is costing more than expected. Plywood, for example is up 19.2% for the year-on-year report. Gee, yah think this might have some impact on housing starts? (Duhhh...) Steel mill products up only 4.9% YOY? No thanks, I can't buy that one.
One that will really ripple through the economy - and the fast food business in particular is the 52.1% YOY rise in soybean prices. Then there's the 72.2% increase in Iron and scrap steel prices - those I can buy.
The bottom line to this report is that inflation is back - and the 7.2% annual rate of increase in the PPI numbers this month is only the tip of the iceberg. Just wait till next month.
Saudis Make Sense
Here's some genuinely good news on the WOT front. Saudi Arabia has suspended 900 imams because they were not sticking to the teachings of their faith - and were off promoting hatred of non-Muslims: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3520822.stm
Close Call in Space
From a NASA Press Release out today:
A small near-Earth asteroid (NEA), discovered Monday night by the NASA-funded LINEAR asteroid survey, will make the closest approach to Earth ever recorded. There is no danger of a collision with the Earth during this encounter.
The object, designated 2004 FH, is roughly 30 meters (100 feet) in diameter and will pass just 43,000 km (26,500 miles, or about 3.4 Earth diameters) above the Earth's surface on March 18th at 5:08 PM EST (2:08 PM PST, 22:08 UTC). (Close approach details here).
On average, objects about the size of 2004 FH pass within this distance roughly once every two years, but most of these small objects pass by undetected. This particular close approach is unusual only in the sense that scientists know about it. The fact that an object as small as asteroid 2004 FH has been discovered now is mostly a matter of perseverance by the LINEAR team, who are funded by NASA to search for larger kilometer-sized NEAs, but also routinely detect much smaller objects.
Asteroid 2004 FH's point of closest approach with the Earth will be over the South Atlantic Ocean. Using a good pair of binoculars, the object will be bright enough to be seen during this close approach from areas of Europe, Asia and most of the Southern Hemisphere.
Scientists look forward to the flyby as it will provide them an unprecedented opportunity to study a small NEA asteroid up close.
Go study up on Toutatis, which will be coming around in September...
White Minority
By 2050, less than half of Americans will be white: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040318/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/america_in2050_8 Does that mean I can get an affirmative action plan going for myself?
Pot Calls Kettle Black
Dick Cheney, Vice President Oil, says John Kerry is a threat to national security: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash7dc.htm This is rich.
Wednesday
PPI Numbers Coming Tomorrow!
Now comes "truth or consequences" time at the BLS: The January PPI numbers are due to come out tomorrow - over a month late. The official word:
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2004, originally scheduled for release on February 19, will be released on Thursday, March 18, at 8:30 a.m. EST. The delay was caused by unexpected difficulties in the conversion of PPI data from the Standard Industrial Classification system to the North American Industry Classification System.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not yet scheduled a release date for the February 2004 PPI, originally scheduled for March 12, 2004. When a revised release date is determined, it will be announced at least one day ahead of time on this web page and through a news advisory.
BLS expresses its sincere apologies to those who have experienced any problems as a result of these delays.
Big Question: Will they reveal the real - widely reported 20-60% increase in steel and other commodities - or will these just push into Feb's report? Stay tuned for details...
Shell: Here Come the Feds
Although most conventional media certainly won't lead with the story, the biggie of the day in our book is the report that the Feds are going after Shell Oil officials about when they knew about the massively inflated estimates of proven reserves. The story in the NY Times is worth a read because it bolsters the notion that Peak Oil is here... or was recently. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/17/business/17oil.html?ei=5062&en=94bee42c92ab9276&ex=1080104400&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=
The real deal here is what will happen to the other "majors" who are likely all sitting on "proven reserve" estimates that have been inflated to one extent or another. Oh, what a fine stew we've made in the oil patch, huh?
Syria Next
Here's a backgrounder piece from last October which was posted in The Nation at http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20031103&s=editors and it may be about time to read it because of the Syria Accountability Act. Basically, it gives the president the power to impose sanctions on Syria if they can't prove that they don't support terrorism and so forth. If you want something to do, go look up the Syria Accountability Act - and then ask yourself, how would Israel fare if they were subjected to the same kinds of limits as we're putting on Syria. You know, if it's good for one country, why not all, right? Sort of an equal opportunity law. Worth pondering as today we're reading about more Israeli raids into Gaza and their wall issues at places like http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5AC98E86-DB9C-43E7-A40A-3312051CBBA9.htm. Not taking sides on this, just asking why asymmetrical policies are a good thing when I thought the essence of the Republic here was equality and equal treatment...
Dueling Iraq polls: If you listen to the polls the administration is pushing, things are getting better for the average Joe in Iraq. But then you read polls like the one at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3518412.stm and wonder who is telling the truth.
WOT: Watching, Waiting
Oh my, here's the reading list for today: South Korea thinks that because they are sending more troops to Iraq (in order to keep US favor) that they might be subject to a terrorist attack: http://www.reuters.co.uk/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=477049. Then we have the Congressional report out yesterday that names 237 misleading statements by the administration on the Iraq War... http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/78ED42F5-454D-4064-B788-8AB0948AE7CD.htm. And if you want to try and figure out where the next attacks will come from, you might try watching shipping more closely says one analyst: . http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA9R69GXRD.html
B of A: Jobjack or Job hack?
Makes little difference. About 13-thousand jobs are reportedly to be axed in the wake of the Fleet Bank merger. http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA23IKFXRD.html I wonder how many B of A'ers are looking at those signs up in the bank about "Fiscal Fitness" and scratching their heads wondering if that's how it will be achieved.
Mailbag:
Here's one to gnaw on:
Something struck me when I read this in yesterday's column: <snip>
I talked briefly to the kid who delivered some of the lumber for our home rebuilding project here in Texas while I'm unemployed (but still looking). "I work about 70 hours a week," this $10/hour truck driver told me, "in order to make ends meet." His wife works only 40 plus takes care of their kids.
</snip>
It suddenly explains why it feels like the unemployment rate is higher than ever in my 53 years experience, and the posted rate seems low - even after adding in an estimate of how many have fallen off the unemployment roles. I just wonder how many people are being counted twice or three times because they are working multiple jobs?
What I see out here in La La Land is a lot of highly experienced former executives in 'our' age group running around trying to piece together a living while calling themselves 'investment bankers' or 'consultants' or 'entrepreneurs' or ... A lot of retired folk also scrounging because they can't live on Social Security and they don't have much if anything in their 401K plans.
Speaking of this mythical retirement of the Baby Boomers who supposedly have these huge 401Ks, I would be surprised if the majority have as much as $100,000 in their plans. How is one to live on $100,000 for 20 to 40 years??? I was working a stint as a stockbroker with ***** ***** in Torrance [center of the Defense Industry] when a whole bunch of those aerospace engineer types hit retirement. Their plans averaged $100,000 to about $250,000 but nothing much higher. Occasionally $400,000 - but how the heck could one live from 65 to 85+ [and more likely 100] on $400,000???? AAAAAUGH! Particularly when they have probably just refinanced their homes. It takes one healthy person a good $3000/month to live MODESTLY [Top Ramen and quesadillas and no extras like vacations or new cars or the heater on] in San Pedro, so if one gets $2000/month in Social Security and takes $1000 out of savings, one could live for 33 years - but we know that equation is assuming no investment losses, no big expenses, and Top Ramen for the rest of one's life. I also didn't include interest on the savings, but .....
Y'know how in Star Trek there is no such thing as money? I have always had a theory that the Baby Boom generation's retirement would force that to happen. Otherwise there will be a whole bunch of us camped out in a Poverty Camp on the lawn of the White House. And that is assuming the economy and world affairs go swimmingly well!
Vegas Goes Cruise Ship Route
Remember the bout of cruise ship illnesses that happened last year? Well, here's an eye popper: There are some illness reports coming out of Las Vegas now: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAZ5WFFXRD.html. only 74 cases reported last week, but it's a Norwalk-like virus apparently, says the report.
EO
Earth oddities of the day: That big blast on the sun that was passed off as an X-28 flare last year was really much bigger than that - in fact about twice as big. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3515788.stm If the sun had been pointing at earth at the time (rotation and locus of flare) we would have had power and satellite outages, almost for sure. Meantime, look at the Northeast - Spring comes in like a lion and it's still coming in like a lion: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAA7APAXRD.html. Blame climate change - and more oddities like it to come - with high temps expected this summer.
Tuesday
Housing: Sick
The report is out this morning from the Commerce Department - and it says that housing starts dropped in February, despite the interest rates being at 5.64% in February, the lowest since July of 2003. http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040316/economy_housing_3.html Granted there may have been some impacts of bad weather, but the report is that starts were down in the South and West. Here's the deal, plain and simple. People without jobs - or high confidence in the future - will not run out and bur6y themselves in debt in order to buy a new home. What's more, the other key is that many home buyers have existing homes, and they aren't selling.
Under all of this is another dynamic: In the headlong rush to refinance homes to take advantage of "easy money" millions of families have rung out their previously existing home equity so that even if they wanted to buy a home now, they wouldn't be able to find a ready buyer for the existing home. Making it worse? Millions of young people - many with college degrees - are unable to find real work that pays more than $10-12 and hour. Do the math! That's a whopping $24,000 pretax, such that two people trying to start a family can't find a way to buy a home on a combined income of $50K.
I talked briefly to the kid who delivered some of the lumber for our home rebuilding project here in Texas while I'm unemployed (but still looking). "I work about 70 hours a week," this $10/hour truck driver told me, "in order to make ends meet." His wife works only 40 plus takes care of their kids.
What will start impacting housing starts later on this spring will be higher prices for building materials. Wood, for example is up 20-35% for the year, according to informal surveying of the locals. I just bought some 1 by 6 clear pine, 16' clear lumber to box in a beam in the house. Set me back $13.43 each. Sure it's nice wood, but $13.43 apiece? Then there's the tool issue. If I hadn't picked up a $99 table saw and Lowe's (and then snagged a $20 rebate from Delta) I would be running out of time as steel prices are up 30-40% (and more) according to reader reports we've published here.
Last, but not least there's the help. The job site language of the day in Spanish - and the workers are mostly illegals. I'm proud to say that I haven't used one illegal in my house building yet, but take a spin out to the suburbs where new homes are going up and talk to the people on the job site. The illegals are dragging down wages (although that admittedly does keep new home prices under some control.
When I say housing is sick, I'm not kidding. But there's enough spin on the story - and few reporters out talking to real contractors - that the market ought to rally handsomely today!
B of A's SEC Cost: $675 million
Another Depression marker here, although you may not want to hear it. The headline story is that B of A is paying $675 million to square up with the SEC and NY State on charges that they were doing no-no's. Details: http://www.nypost.com/business/20904.htm. Now let me refresh your memory on the history of banking. There was a time, specifically after the Great Depression (the first one) when banks were prohibited from playing in the securities field. The reason? Conflicts of interest. Now we have banks in the securities business. Once again, history rhymes.
Crudele on Gas Prices
Tired of being screwed at the pump? Upset that OPEC is sticking by their production cuts? Get over it. It's just more evidence that Peak Oil is here (or gone by). Oh it gets better. The price is likely to jump another 30-40 ¢ents in the Northeast reports John Crudele of the NY Post at http://www.nypost.com/business/20894.htm because of changes in how gas is formulated. I wonder what will happen to the price of Vaseline in all this. Meantime, high prices haven't caused people to cut back on driving - yet: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040315/ap_on_bi_ge/gasoline_consumption_2. That means prices will go up further this summer.
Whine on Wine
Hillary drinks NY wine to support agriculture: http://www.nypost.com/business/20903.htm. Hell, I must be a supporter of Jamaican agriculture - me and Bacardi, huh?
Nader the Spoiler
There's an interesting analysis piece in the NY Times today about how Ralph Nader's bid for the White House could muddy up things for John Kerry - by actually giving people and alternative to the same old sources of leadership; http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/16/politics/campaign/16POLL.html?ex=1080018000&en=b27f9ba16f56e0a8&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
The times story doesn't go into Bonesmanship, but I think it's just possible that 7% of the people polled would prefer a non "club" member as president, don'tcha think?
WOT: Spain Wasn't OBL
We can't reveal our sources, but the word in the intelligence community is that the claim in an alleged al Qaida communiqué following the Spain explosions was not the genuine article. Too many phrases that didn't fit with bin Laden's and too much emphasis on Crusaders, Masons, etc. The EU meantime is holding emergency meetings on terrorism: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040315/D81AUPLO0.html
Meantime, 26 detainees at the US base in Guantanamo have been moved to Afghanistan and Pakistan and released - very quietly we note - because they were no longer deemed a threat and not longer had any intelligence value: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/58D16EDA-EFB2-4118-AEDB-7869CDDFA148.htm If you're counting, it's now 119 released, more than 600 still being held.
Where's Congress? Where's the declaration of war? OK, so no declaration - then where's the oil?
Fed in a Box
The Fed meets today. They have about no choice but hold rates as is. Reasons: If they lower, countries like Japan which have been buying Walbucks to hold up exports will be screwed. If they raise rates, the markets will tank. Take that and a weak job market, and you get a non-event. Still, we look for a rally before and sell off after today's meeting.: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAN14O2WRD.html
Lifestyle news at our companion site http://independencejournal.com/rightnow.htm
Mailbag
Here's a Reader email you might enjoy:
If the Mayans correctly have us entering the Age of Aquarius in 2012, and all approaching signs shed their influence gradually as they approach. We must now be feeling the influences of the coming Aquarian age. Since the Aquarian age is supposed to be about harmony, peace, love, etc. How can you predict all this doom and gloom?
I really need an answer on this one.
My Answer:
I would never characterize my views as “doom & gloom” – rather it’s about a rebirth. At some point, enough people wake up to the watering down of money (e.g. stealing of our life’s work, and the system tanks. That’s not gloom – that’s about trying to rebirth the economy so it works.
Here’s how money is supposed to work: You earn $10.00 10 years ago and put it in the bank. Bank pays interest.
Let’s say that would have paid $10.00 for an oil change in 1994.
If you had put the money in the bank, you would get back about $12.75 today and the oil change is now $19.85. You lost.
Put a bit more succinctly, your hard-earned savings are being stolen faster than you can make it.
The only way to play the game and win is to use “leverage”, but the problem of leverage is that with derivatives, real estate, etc. everything has now been bid up to unrealistic prices. (look at P/E's for example)
Wages have not kept pace with inflation (theft of money by watering down).
So while the specific day or even year of Aquarius is not clear (although the Baktun long count makes the most sense, in 2012, the new paradigm is already arising if you know where to look.
If you save an hour of work today, if you don’t get the whole hour – plus a little something for putting your money at risk, back because the system is run crooked – which is why it fails.
This help?
Happy Reader:
Outstanding answer George. That's what I was Expecting from you. Thanks.
Monday
The 72-Year Cycle: Crash Due Now-> Election
A Special Report by our Canadian Correspondent Tim "News Hound" B.
What is one of the "magic numbers" so well-known to antiquity that it is inscribed on the inside of one of the Egyptian pyramids walls?
2520
That is the smallest integer into which the consecutive integers 1 to 10 can be divided evenly.
Interestingly, it is equal to 360 X 7, which is the total number of degrees the Earth revolves through in 7 years, or rotates through in 7 days. 7-Year Cycles are mentioned profusely in the Bible, and elsewhere in antiquity.
For purposes of the next calculation, I will use the 24-hour day, equal to 86,400 seconds, even though the actual real sidereal Earth day(time to rotate exactly once around on its axis) is 23 hours, 56 minutes, 4.1 seconds.
It is the 24-hour day that we all use in our calendars ,and the one which results in an almost-exact average of 365.25 days to revolve around the Sun. This produces an error of only one day in many thousands of years, and in fact the Gregorian calendar most of us use is based on correcting for the precession of the Equinoxes.
Martin Armstrong years ago discovered the 8.6-year cycle, and it turns out that this time span equals 1000(Pi) days.
A smaller cycle, the 8.64 month, was first seen by me in a PrudentBear post about 2 years ago, and I believe Martin missed that one, or else did not consider it powerful enough to mean anything. It is equal to 2000(Pi) hours. Congratulations to that poster for figuring that one out!
But what of longer, stronger cycles? Why have there been 3 consecutive 72-year economic calamities, the last ending July 8/1932? It requires looking into, since we are right in the window for it NOW! http://www.stariq.com/pagetemplate/article.asp?PageID=3778
What pulse or harmony would drive this 72-year Cycle?
Just using a calculator, and figuring hours, or seconds, or days, and some relationship to Pi produces the very simple fact that 200,000(Pi) hours= 72 Years. More specifically, it would be 71.677 years. It is exactly equal to 100 8.64-month cycles!
Well, so what? How can this be reconciled with Earth cycles, or cosmic events ?
It would seem that we are seeing a Universal constant (=Pi), combine with a human mass-psychology number(10-based because of our decimal system, due to almost all of us having 10 digits per body half), taken to a power (squared, cubed , etc.).
But why is Pi involved? Likely because any circle, or going around once, requires it, independent of the number-based system used.
72 years is the time it takes for the Earth to precess 1.0 degrees wrt the background stars, and that includes the arbitrary Zodiac signs. It hence takes 360 times this long, or 25,800 years, for the Earth to complete one 'orbit" through all the signs of the Zodiac, and return to its original orientation. This was well known to the Mayans, who called it a Great Cycle. A Great Cycle, in turn, was composed of 5 Baktun, which was therefore 72 degrees. http://www.stariq.com/pagetemplate/article.asp?PageID=4583
Note that our 72-year cycle lows do NOT necessarily correspond to the exact transition times of the Earth sunrise rising in a different 'House", or sign of the Zodiac, as the Mayans clearly have Earth entering The Age Of Aquarius in December, 2012. At that time, the Earth's North axis will point most closely to Sirius than at any other time.
There are other Earth-related cycles, each longer, that seem minor or irrelevant in the scheme of things, like the 41,000-year cycle of nutation, or "nodding", and the 90,000-year cycle of Earth's orbital eccentricity.
Then there is the 250,000,000 years it takes the Sun to orbit once around the Galactic center, but that is way too long to be of any consequence in a human lifespan.
Since this 72-year cycle is nearly immutable, due to it being rooted in the Earth's rotation, it SHOULD occur regularly, unlike many other cycles, which can and do disappear, or become stretched or compressed, varying in length.
It is of particular relevance, since it is just about equal to a human lifespan.
Very recent events have me concerned that this one is going to rear its head very soon. Even the small rounding error in calling it a 72-year, instead of the precise 71.677 years based on a Gaia heartbeat counting 200,000(Pi) hours, means we have a window of only +- 118 days from 72 years from Jul 8/1932. We have JUST ENTERED that window in the past few days! This window is open until almost exactly the day of the US election.
Is that a sign?
P.S Forgot to add the horrifying part about that great collapse 9-72-year cycles ago that I e-mailed you about:
http://members.tripod.com/~american_almanac/pbgbardi.htm
Gas Price Record
You already knew this from visiting the pump yourself, but gas prices have hit a record high of $1.77 a gallon - which means if the Iraq War was about oil, the gang that couldn't think straight has really blown it. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040315/D81AILK00.html. OPEC's planned oil price pressures (through strict production caps) is still on - and it looks like they mean it: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3512064.stm.
NASA Today
Yeah, we're waiting to see what NASA has to say later today about the new planetoid DW2004 (story below broke Saturday morning and was posted here). But here's the real story within the story: As we have reported before, the real issue for us remains the arrive of Toutatis. We've looked up a paper from 1998 which references the predictions that Toutatis will miss earth by four lunar distances on September 29th of this year. But the key thing to read in the paper at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?1998AcA....48..547S is that it takes only a tiny - and I mean tiny - force from something like a previously unknown planet - like today's announcement about 2004 DW (Sedna) to push in the near-miss of Toutatis from 4 LD's to something much less. Of course it could work the other way too...but that's the mother giant of questions to be asked today. Remember, that if we had a near-miss of a fraction of a lunar distance it would likely set off earthquakes and extreme tides at a minimum as it transits earth's gravity well. More later, but not much can be done about Toutatis now. It's going where it's going September 29th - just pray there was no space dust hit along the way. Summary story at Pravda's English site: http://newsfromrussia.com/science/2004/03/15/52792.html.
Spain Out
With the change in government in Spain, the new socialists figure to take their 1,300 troops out of the country, saying the whole occupation has been a disaster: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3512144.stm. Not to put too fine a point on it, but now that it's just the U.S. and Blair's backers, is two countries enough to call it a "coalition" any more? Morocco meantime says they have identified three suspects in the election-eve bombings in Spain - with any connection with al Qaida, at least according to this report, an open question. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4DF75E29-FE5E-4B79-9A88-5DB01CA46030.htm
Riots in Syria
There are reports on al Jazeera, the Arab world's equivalent of the BBC, that rioting broke out in Northeast Syria following a soccer game this weekend... http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/AEC6B7A0-0849-4EFA-A064-89DF65DDF06D.htm. About 200,000 Kurds are not recognized as citizens of Syria, while about 1.8 million of the country's 17-million population are Kurds. We find the developments interesting, as the CIA has worked with the Kurds in the past, specifically working with Kurds in Northern Iraq before occupation. Also worthy of note: 60% of respondents to an al Jazeera poll see the U.S. pusing on Syria as the U.S.'s second stage in controlling the Middle East (oil resource).
Israeli Attacks
Israeli helicop6ters attacked targets in Gaza City, firing up to 10 missiles according to a report at http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/3381A684-94F6-4EAE-B306-90DA4B967A0D.htm. Regardless of what you think of either party to the mess, this would be like the US Army sending helicopter gun ships to strike targets in Compton...and you know how that would play in the U.S.. Then, if that were followed up with "death squads"...which is exactly what the Israelis seem to be planning: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/DD00DCBA-A961-438D-920C-AE4938A55199.htm
Permanent War Equals Draft
Yup - no question about it, the moves are on to bring back the draft:
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/03/13/MNG905K1BC1.DTL&type=printable.
Chinese Take on U.S. Human Rights
We almost overlooked the report in the People's Daily (China) this month of the U.S. record on Human Rights. China, as you may know, regularly responds to the U.S., publishing it's Country Reports on Human Rights by zinging us with our own stats. As the Information Office of the State Council of the PRC puts it: "As in previous years, the United States once again acted as "the world human rights police" by distorting and censuring in the "reports" the human rights situations in more than 190 countries and regions across the world, including China. And just as usual, the United States once again "omitted" its own long-standing malpractice and problems of human rights in the "reports". Therefore, we have to, as before, help the United States keep its human rights record." Details of what the U.S. looks like to Chinese is at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200403/01/eng20040301_136190.shtml, but the highlights are high murder rates, 731,000 gang members, 10% of Washington D.C.'s population is on drugs (we assume not counting the politicos). On Political rights and freedoms, they bring out that Bush-Cheney are both millionaires and raised $113 million last go round, and will do more this time. - maybe $200 million. in Political contributions, Lockheed Martin (the biggest arms dealer say the Chinese, spent $10.6 billion in 1999-2000 elections. The free press is in trouble, too, not to mention controls on reporting during Iraq II. And on the "wealth gap":
"The disparity between the rich and the poor keep widening in the United States. A 2003 report by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under the US Congress acknowledged that the gap between the rich and the poor in the country today is wider than anytime in nearly 70 years, with the wealth of the country's richest one percent population exceeding the overall possessions of the needy, who account for 40 percent of the total population. In 2000, the rich people's wealth makes up 15.5 percent of the country's overall national income, as against 7.5 percent in 1979 (according to BBC report on Sept. 25, 2003). A report by the US Federal Reserve also showed that between 1998 and 2001, the wealth gap between the country's richest and poorest had widened by 70 percent (see Britain's Guardian report on Jan. 24, 2003)."
Like all all stories, the pot calling the kettle black brings blow back.
Trumped
Jobjack rumor of the week: Trump's going to fire all his apprentices and outsource the whole show.
eBay the Dating Service?
Check out the latest at www.independencejournal.com/rightnow.htm for a report on an odd new self marketing idea my son is testing...
Saturday
Updated: Planet X? 2004DW
Thanks to some sharp-eyed readers - we now know a lot more about the NASA announcement which is coming on Monday about "Planet X". It's 1.5 billion miles farther out than Pluto...and it's apparently bigger than Pluto's moon !
From the reports on the web site of discoverer, Prof. Michael E. Brown of Caltech, the object is 1300 km in size, which is about half the size of Pluto (2300 km).
The biggest question is will it turn out to be a planet? From Prof. Brown's web site:
"We don't think so. It's probably slightly larger than half the size of Pluto and further away, but there are other big objects out there, too. Quaoar (1250 km in diameter), Varuna (900 km in diameter) and 2002 AW197 (also 900 km in diameter) are three of the biggest Kuiper Belt Objects, and they are not considered "planets" either. There are about 800 known Kuiper Belt Objects, most of which are only about 100 km in diameter, and all of which were discovered since 1992 by different scientists who have been looking for them. It's similar to the asteroid belt, but beyond Neptune and contains maybe 100 times more material. You can read more about the Kuiper Belt at the Kuiper Belt Homepage. You can also see the article I wrote for the Sep-Oct 2003 issue of American Scientist."
OK, size, check. Orbital period: 248 years or so. That leaves the one big question for Monday's press briefing: "does it have an orbit that comes near the inner solar system - our neighborhood - at any point?" Odds are likely not - as it probably rarely gets this side of Pluto. Still.... we have to wonder what the orbit and gravitation effect of such a body might be on objects heading toward our solar system from elsewhere. In time, probably thousands of years - it will be worth worrying around...
But wait - if it's already on the discoverer's web site, why a NASA press briefing??? We'll know more Monday.
More on the discoverer's web site: http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~chad/2004dw/
For Subscribers:
Now available: A very interesting interview with a Midwest stock picker who has an enviable record - yet he's predicting a Dow of as low as 700 (!) within 4-years. For subscription information click here.
News from Elliott Wave International
On to Our Charts!
Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it.
All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted
