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Its Real: Prison Labor for the Military We received an interesting news tip yesterday - and one that we find quite interesting. It has to do with official plans of the US Army to enact something called the "Civilian Inmate Labor Program." The general idea is that with troop manpower running low, and local demand for prisoner housing running high, the US Army can pick up some cheap labor from the Federal Bureau of Prisons and perhaps State prisons.
As you may recall, we reported a few weeks back that we've heard that troops are in such short supply in Iraq that ordinary seamen off Navy Trident subs are being given quickie training as sentries, rather than serving on strategic missile platforms, and off they go to Iraq. Now, with the receipt of the Army plans to use federal prisoners for labor, we have to ask what kind of picture this paints of the military's state of readiness?
Specifics of the program, outlined in official Army Regulation 210-35 at http://www.army.mil/usapa/epubs/pdf/r210_35.pdf include some of the following:
In short, this seems to be a low key program, perhaps driven in part by state facilities that are trying to find "creative ways" to offload minimum security inmates because of the huge number of prisoners in US prisons today. Nevertheless, some of the wording is troubling:
The regulations are not particularly complex, and are an interesting read if you have worries about the Army building prison camps at which a nonviolent civilian could be impressed. Has as kind of World War II-ish kind of ring to it, doesn't it?
Gitmo List - Sort of With George Bush on the road, a Freedom of Information Act filing by the Associated Press has forced the release of many names (and home countries) of inmate residents of Guantanamo Bay Cuba. Key point to the AP story:
There was a time on American soil when no one could be detained indefinitely without being charged. But that was back when the Constitution was whole. Alternative coverage here. Tenser Taiwan Once again today, we read how China is upping the general level of rhetoric about renegade Taiwan's future.
Media Madness? We are shocked at the reports that TV talking head Bill O'Reilly threatened a radio show caller with a visit from "Fox Security" for mentioning more reasonable rival Keith Olbermann's name on O'Reilly's show. As if that wasn't so bad, there was, if I can believe my own earts, talk of O'Reilly calling local authorities. Then - making this even more juicy - the judicious editing after the fact of what was said. Thank God for time code. I wonder if anyone from Fox Security or "local authorities" will visit us now, for mentioning this? We'd love to tape that...
The R&R War Ah, just when we were comfortable slipping back into calling the present "Religion and Resources War" the "Manufacturer's Resource Wars" along comes Tony Blair, who has apparently taken a page out of the Karl Rove "use the religious" playbook. Blair, hip deep with us trying to unwind a civil war in Iraq has "gotten religion." My copy of the 10 Commandments says pretty clearly "Thou Shalt Not Kill." My doesn't have any "except when corporate earnings are on the line", or "in event of" clauses. Must be some other religion, huh?
What's that, Mel? Speaking of speaking in tongues and such, Mel Gibson is doing a a speech in the ancient Maya language for the Oscars Sunday. I have to admire Gibson - more ancient languages that even Professor Jones...(Indiana, if your coffee hasn't kicked in yet.)
More Entertainment But of a serious sort:
Bot Watch I'm not the only one who caught the bots being right on "gaffe alert":
Reader Researchers A reader also sent in this:
The answer from the People's Economist:
La Nina Here come the weather disruptions as a huge La Nina forms off South America. Al Gore meantime is asking media to devote time to the issue.
Big Oil Spill Speaking of global warming, did you catch the report in the Seattle Post Intelligencer that there was an oil spill, cause by who knows what, on the North Slope pipeline in Alaska? We'll be watching for updates on this for the obvious reason: If there's substantial global warming, the Alaska Pipeline, built largely on permafrost could rupture if its supports sink.
Peoplenomics This week's Peoplenomics.com subscriber report ($30 a year for our http://www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm newsletter) deals with "Problems of Empire" and how inflation will be the preferred policy option over deflation. The Great Depression took 12-years. The Weimar inflation fire burned about 1/3'rd as long. And there's more...
Cheap, Cheaper, Cheapest Still going great guns: Our "How to live on $10,000 a year or less" report.
Please Advise... ...your friends that there's an update to this site every morning about this time (Except Sundays) by clicking here and sending them a link. They might appreciate that you are capable of revolutionary thought...
Friday March 3, 2006 Soaring Silver Quick: What did I tell you about in July around $7 which is now over $10 this morning? Silver - which is making its biggest move in 22-years. I have a hunch that silver could be headed back to its historical levels - where it might reach a 15:1 or even 12:1 ratio to gold. If we assume a steady-state gold price of $550 (not likely, but just for discussion), a 15:1 ratio would place silver at $36 and 12:1 would put silver close to $46. Yee haw!
But there are some folks you can find that project wildly higher prices: like $10,800 gold and $700 silver. But there's a downside as well as an upside: Namely, when the stuff hits the fan (SHTF) there will be incredible pressures on government to seize precious metals. Which gets me to asking...
Where Are Your Metals? An absolute "must-read" for you: "A New Gold Seizure: Possibility or Paranoia?" The report by Dr. Edwin Vieira, recounts the history of gold confiscation in Part 1 and delves into what might happen in modern times in Part 2. He makes the case that if States use gold and silver, that might keep the banksters/feds at bay should gold/silver/other asset seizures come when the aforementioned SHTF occurs..
The trick shot will be getting out of gold and silver in advance of confiscation, or having acquired your assets in such a way as to be untraceable (cash deal with a local coin dealer). And then there's the matter of whether US Eagles (and maybe NAFTA money Maples) would enjoy any special consideration (beyond face value, I mean).
Treason in the White House? That's a mighty serious charge, but nevertheless, a group of experts this week has raised the question and is demanding release of information they claim would directly tie the Bush administration directly to the events of 9/11. Here are some portion of their news release:
We note that "Judicial Watch has filed a lawsuit demanding that DoD release its film footage. " However, I need to remind you that with a largely Bush-picked High Court, it seems unlikely that the release of facts will come in our lifetime. We see a parallel here to the role of John Kennedy's attempt to reassert actual Federal government control of the currency from the misnamed Federal Reserve - which is neither - will stay largely out - or incorrectly written in the history books.
Let me venture into speculation for a moment: Looking at things from a purely pragmatic standpoint (or as close as I can figure), I have to wonder what happened to all the gold that was supposed to be in the basement vaults of WTC.
Consider the management decision if you knew that certain revelations were about to become public around the time of 9/11 that held something like a 99% chance that they would crash the stock and bond markets, destroying America (as one might envision being a potential outcome of no 9/11 and a crooked/rigged market and massive theft of assets), what would your call be if you were in the hot seat, and you could have a hand in deciding? Think about it: $6-trillion (or more) of GDP going forward with events of 9/11 or literally "game over" by now for the US financial system if the depths of deception came out: How would you play it? We note that mainstream media has managed to bury the naked-short selling story and ask "What else is being held in check?"
Look: I know this is almost too horrific a thought to wrap your head around, especially on a Friday, but if you were looking at a collapse of the US economy scenario, devolving into civil war, the end of America as a world power, what would be the "right" thing to do? What would the Constitution mandate you do?
We need to ask if there was such a threat... Naturally, this is highly speculative, but thinking the unthinkable is what we do around here. Especially when the facts seem to fit. The failure to release everything to the public literally screams to the aware public that there's another level to the game - and one which we the public can't be trusted to understand, comprehend, or agree with. And the swift flip over into a war in Iraq - just a PR magician's sleight of hand to distract our attention from the real story. The world is playing financial musical chairs and the music was about to stop..The war wound that back up again.
Turn Up the Fear Factor We find the timing of the latest reports of a "new al Qaida attack on America being planned" almost curiously coincident with the pressure being turned up by the "truth out about 9/11" groups.
Some Golf Trip Texas' Tom Delay and his wife reportedly went to Scotland for golf in June of 2000 - on a $14,000 trip allegedly paid for by Jack Abramoff. You see why I call it the best CONgress money can buy?
The Rational Reader Perhaps, over the past nine years of publishing this site, you may have thought I was more than slightly mad for pursuing (doggedly) the notion that we're at a tipping point into the Grad Daddy or all Depressions - the Second Great Depression - which I reckon will be obvious as the stock market begins its second great leg down, which will no doubt be "covered" (to retain bankers their usurious positions) by another "terrorist attack" (two stories up). A few readers, long skeptical, are starting to see things the same way:
The task for all of us in tumultuous times like this is simple: Hold to whatever our Faith happens to be, believe in and support the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and look for an honest person to support for public office if we can find 'em. Remember, Rights are always taken first from people least able to defend them, as we've seen historically.
Others Thinking We pointed out yesterday that "the headlines were full of it" on the Bush-India nuclear deal from the White House's traveling Road Show. Nice to see the Boston Globe is printing the same kind of healthy skepticism. (We're not sure what they mean by "historic agreement" other than that one didn't exist previously, but that's a nit.)
Iran Simmers Hotter The EU and Iran failed to come to terms on a nuclear solution. Say, I seem to recall that when India was developing nukes (in the face of adverse world opinion) we didn't go bomb them. But, they had no oil, no Euro denominated oil bourse, and they aren't strategically next door to China - so I think I answered my own questions. Coffee!
Curfew Not Working In Iraq, where the US is trying to police a civil war that's blowing up, the reports are that bans on vehicular traffic are not calming things. Civil wars are like that, you know...
Thursday March 3, 2006 hose "Double Dealing" Clintons If you think I'm hard on George Bush, think again. I'm even harder on America's two-faced political elitists Bill and Hillary Clinton. The AFP headline sums up their latest antics as America's Democratic [morality] poster family: " Bill Clinton advises Dubai as Hillary attacks its US Ports deal."
If it wasn't an ex-president and a presidential wanna be playing this sick game (and under the label as "democrats") it might be almost comedic. As it is, I'd have to call it two-faced corporate hucksterism. If this isn't clear evidence of the elite's Corporate One Party System, I don't know what is... Quick: Where's a third party or even one more real Republicans who believes in small central government and states' rights other than Ron Paul?
So? Of Course They Lied A number of readers have sent in links to stories that George Bush was very well briefed in advance of Katrina partially wiping out New Orleans. OK, so this flies in the face of what we were later told - that there was no warning. But shoot-darn: Anyone can forget a briefing here and there, right? However, as the Chicago Trib reports in this morning's editions, the Bush Katrina Problem just got bigger. We can hardly wait for the spin to begin...
Non-Soft Gulags Our report yesterday on the notion of a "soft" dictatorship emerging in the US brought a sharp reply from a reader who says there's nothing 'soft" about it:
Why mention this email? It relates to the idea that later today the Senate will be.... Voting Away Your Rights Today, the Patriot Act will likely be re-authorized by a stampeding Senate. Impervious to logic and with only cosmetic changes, the Act will be voted in again, despite repeated instances of the administration failing to follow mandated use of the FISA Court, and wiretapping Americans more or less at will. I suppose now, speaking ill of the Act (which used to be Constitutionally protected Free Speech) will now be interpreted as treasonous.
I am reminded of a conversation here in the office earlier this week with retired Ranger/SF'er Panama Bates: “I know I am becoming politically correct when I’m afraid to say what I really think”. Amen.
On the other hand, I think it will still be OK to encourage voting in 2006 and 2008 to vote out of office any of the folks who had a particularly difficult time reading the Constitution. Then again, maybe not...bitte.
The Nuke Deal that Isn't The headlines are full of it this morning (sadly, the pun is intended)- about how George Bush has "finalised today" a nuclear deal with India, under which India will open a few of their nuke sites to international inspection (they already have nukes, so it's not like a big give away by India) and in return, they will get access to "US nuclear technology to help them meet their energy need."
While a few of the neoCONs and their corporate news pawns are spouting how this is an historic agreement, a more rational person (me, for example) might point out that India hasn't really changed its course, and as a bonus for going along with the hype, we are going to let them in on nuclear secrets. WTF? Media show time!
India isn't signing on to nuclear non-proliferation and they aren't planning to dismantle a single warhead they have pointed in the general direction of Pakistan. So I'm left pondering why is this so historic? It's a wildly better deal for India than we're offering other countries (Iran, for example). If I were in Pakistan, I'd have no sense of relief. But like I said at the outset, the headlines are full of it.
Outsource Bush to India? I'm told the source is unknown, but if you get as many emails as I do, the whole "jobjacking" "outsourcing" and corporate thievery of the Middle Class Lifestyle is all summed up neatly in a "joke" going around suggesting that George Bush ought to be outsourced to India and taste some of the tears of America's nearly vanished Middle Class:
OK, so much for the diversion; let's get back to the more serious side of things:
Iran Simmers Meantime, although there was much pomposity surrounding Vladimir Putin's "deal" with Iran to defuse the enrichment crisis there, it looks like the Kremlin victory party was wildly premature: Today, Iran is saying there's no deal. Still, Iran is keeping the political games going while presumably scrambling toward an enrichment program. They now want to meet with EU ministers prior to the upcoming IAEA meetings.
This leaves in play one possibility for our context shift later this month: Could it be that the US and/or Israel will demolish any chance of moral leadership by going to first use of nuclear weapons on a country that hasn't declared war with anyone?
DOD Grilling Low Key Not getting much notice in the Mainstream Media - but critically important to all of us who love this Great Country, is the problem of funding the military. DOD has been put between a rock and a hard spot. On the one hand, the end of the Cold War didn't end strategic threats to America (China ascending, for example) and there are still some serous nutjobs with nukes in North Korea. And then there's the search for the (probably already dead, but propped up in media hype to keep the patriot Act in place) Osama bin Laden.
But the real issue we see is the new emphasis on Urban Warfare and how this is changing the role of the Defense Department. The Bush administration is already making moves to replace conventional emergency responders within the US (Saying the military, not FEMA would have point in the future) and this is a troubling statement of intent to use the military within the borders of these United States.
We've got many friends who are current duty military and we appreciate how their nuts are in a vice - trying to effectively run the kind of military envisioned by the Framers of the Constitution, while at the same time being pulled in new domestic deployment directions, more profitable for corporate terror/fear/death merchant industries. Typical "do more with less" nonthink from CONgress.
Behind all the week's hype, this is an ongoing sea state change that will ripple for years to come. I offer my humble thanks to our military brass who have put up with the politics at the top and have remained true to American principles and ideals.
FinReb Continues We postulated yesterday that a Financial Rebellion might be underway right here in these United States (among the 'haves' and the 'have nots'). A reader sends along this thoughtful reply:
Other Data Points I had a very pleasant conversation last night with TV Weatherman turned reporter Scott Stevens, who has been tracking HAARP/Chemtrails/Scalar weapons development over at www.weatherwars.info. Besides the usual "Who and Why are they doing this?" questions Scott was kind enough to share some thoughts on things like "Disappearing earthquakes." One of his readers offering this: "After reading the original article you published (Alaska Quake Series), I went to recheck the USGS map for the exact location. To my surprise, the previously confirmed quake was removed from the map. I have seen these patterns of info removal before (Colorado/New Mexico border region). Usually indicates an “Oops” for public non-approved viewing."
Another interesting snip and possible data point from a Weatherwars.info reader about Chemtrails/HAARP: "The idea was to create a plasma in the upper atmosphere that could propagate LF comm; Like sonar does in the oceans. In reality, HAARP and Chemtrails are a multi-faceted weather control, energy delivery, communications, weaponized system. Tesla was really ahead of his time…. Also …. HAARP was used to “See” the underground tunnel networks in Afghanistan prior to our military ops there (LF penetrates earth quite well)."
Wednesday March 1, 2006 The Gulags are Here (and the Soft Dictatorship) Something that has popped up with increasing frequency in the web bot data (I'm told) is the whole notion of the US sliding into a "soft dictatorship." Central to the discussion seems to be that the Patriot Act has been renewed (a fact few besides Robert Byrd are saying much about), both republicans and democrats have basically sold their moral/leadership authority to the highest bidding corporate frontsters, and to top things off, the Bush folks are now spending a third of a billion dollars to plan "detention and processing centers" reports Prison Planet.
The meme to remember is "don't rock the boat" and don't do anything that would draw undo attention to yourself and you will do fine. You don't want to be labeled a Fifth Columnist.
The problem with terrorism laws is that in the wrong hands (and who makes that decision?) they could be interpreted in such a way that anyone who actively organizes a protest against the present power structure could be named an enemy of the state and carted off.
But what do you suppose would drive people to such behaviors? Well, today we read about the real drop in lower income family standards of living: Reported by the Fed now, the story goes something along the lines of a Robin Hood from Hell, where the robbing is from the poor and given to the (already) rich. Salient quote:
Something that seems to ring true to the web bot's "rebellion" attribute set (associated with the USA Populous entity) is the reported plan for various groups to Storm the White House and try to occupy it. Obviously, such an occupation can not and will not be tolerated by the powers that be. To me, it has Kent State potential. (Lyrics to Crosby Stills & Nash "Ohio")
While you might be tempted to rock the boat, frame your thinking with the idea that the Soft Dictatorship is a gamble by the power structure that just regular folks like you and me won't join in something like an AmRevTwo (the Second American Revolution) which you can hear talk about on the fringes, or other direct action like this Occupy the White House drive drive.
I expect most Americans (including me) would like to act peacefully (by coordinated voting, third parties, changing the existing from the inside and by legal processes, etc) to reestablish this Great Country as a Constitutional Republic, not the Empire of the Rich it seems bent on becoming. Still, there is so much anger among the marginalized/poor/unemployed that the web bot's "rebellion" meme seems to be coming to life. And quickly.
Consumer Spending Well, we have good news and bad about consumer spending reported this morning by the Commerce Department. On the one hand, spending was up 0.9% for the month (don't bring up the issue of inflation's role, OK?) but on the other incomes were up only 0.7%. And for the year 2005, the national savings rate was negative 0.4%, the first time we've seen that since 1932/1933 during the last Great Depression.
You're welcome to argue my "Second Depression is Underway": hypothesis, but I gotta point to this report on the savings rate as being real strong evidence for my position. But you want to talk about stocks and mutual funds? OK, lets:
The Cruel Market As we await the opening bell, we're struck once again by the people who have been writing in cheering the markets move over 11,000. "Oh, George, you dolt of an economist," this composite view goes, "You have been dead wrong on the Second Great Depression and you are unashamed of yourself as you should be!"
Let me roll through this one more time for the math impaired:
My opinion, should you care to throw it into your decision-making process, is that the market will go through perhaps a day or two of "show rally" while a supposedly titanic struggle is waged over the 11,000 level.
The perma-bulls will point to my healthy skepticism and decry me as a doomster (which I'm not). The bears will point to me as a genius. (Which I'd sure like to be, but alas...) What I'm trying to be is a rational guy looking at irrational investors and suggesting that you take your analysis of politics, markets, precious metals, and darned near anything else (bird flu, UFO's around the sun, etc.) and go at least one layer further in your research because like the proverbial onion, the outer "media skin" of the market onion is designed for the sheep. Which you presumably don't want to be.
Pilot Labor Northwest and Delta have showdowns in process with pilots. The companies want the pilots to take wage cuts. Northwest has already cut nearly 40% from pilot pay. I can't speak for all air travelers, but when a fully laden jet is set up for a Cat 2 landing in IFR/icing/heavy cross wind conditions with me in the back, I'd just as soon he not be worried about making enough money to cover his next house payment. Then again, maybe I'm on a no fly list, and I needn't worry... Hey, maybe you are, too!
Reality of Peak Oil Not out, but past the peak, looks like.
Delightful Honesty at Google I was pleased as punch when Google's chief money whiz (they have many) got up and stated that the company growth rate was not sustainable. Basically he explained how the Law of Large Numbers applies - and predicted a slowing of Google grow in the future. I thought it was admirable because Google was "telling it like it is." The 900-pound gorilla can not go on to become an 1,800- pound gorilla, then a 3,600-pound gorilla, then a 7,200-pound gorilla, then a 14,400 pound gorilla, 28,800 pound gorilla etc. (with due respects to King Kong and Microsoft). At some point, the physics takes over and the company (or gorilla) would have to own everything on earth (or eat earth in the gorilla's case) and that's not likely to happen.
So, what do panic-stricken numb skulls do? They move with the herd, and shares drop 14% in a day. Better plan? If you want out, don't run with the herd. Think for yourself. Do your own timing. And I for one think Reyes is a 24 kt. guy for telling investors the truth as he sees it. And I admire him for telling it and reminding the "star struck."
Small Gras Not many people around to party hardy at Mardi Gras this year.
Around the World in Seconds
yeah, watch this Taiwan China dance because the US is largely deployed in the Middle East and other than forwarding a diplomatic note, we'd be able to do little (or nothing) about a Taiwan takeover by China this year.
Chocolate Good Mmmm...yeah "Chocolate very good..." Yum.. (various slobbering noises). Now it turns out that a third of a chocolate bar a day is actually good for lowering blood pressure! Yippe!
Time Machine Law? Say, with our context change coming later this morning (before the 28th now, shading more like the 24th-26th in the most recent views) it struck me that I'm not aware of any laws against operating a time machine, which in a sense, the web bot project over at www.halfpasthuman.com might be inferred to be. So, if you happen to be a lawyer who knows about the intricacies of federal law, and you know of some prohibition on looking into the future in US Code somewhere, please let me know. I try to always follow the law, but I don't have time (or the inclination) to read the volumes and volumes of laws to see if there is such a thing.
As long as you're at it, you might look up whether there's a federal law about contact with extraterrestrials, too. (Not those kind of aliens, silly!). No, we haven't been approached by the MIB's or the grays, but it's an interesting question. I do seem to recall that Sasquatches (Big Foot) is an endangered species in federal law...
Tuesday Feb 28 2006 CONsumer CONfidence Drops More than expected by most "conventional" economists - down to 101.7 - a near dead heat. You were expecting a rally maybe? One thing we didn't report last week (not wanting to bore you and all) - but which is germane here is how the mass layoff picture as reported by BLS on February 23rd:
The People's Economist says "The distortion of the 4-week January in 2006 means we had about 27,094 mass layoff "victims per week". "However, if we pencil this out over a normal 5-week reporting month we would have seen about 135.000 for the month - almost within the statistical error range for December and January to be essentially unchanged. This is where your consumer confidence has gone (and will keep going) as the giant sucking sound is real jobs (e.g. manufacturing) being jobjacked by the boardroom gangsters to least-cost labor holes overseas."
Does this answer for even the most thick headed why the Dow may be headed back under 11,000 shortly?
Context Change in One Month Although it may seem really odd, especially to readers who are new to this site and don't realize that we use future predictive software to guide our coverage (and have since the spectacular success it had predicting a "tipping point" that would change how we live our lives three months prior to 9/11/2001). There were pieces of prediction correct prior to the Nov 12, 2001 crash of American 587, and our friend's skills got obviously better as they evolved the technology such that by the time of the Northeast Power Outage. the indications of what the future became darn near precise. Between the early days and now, there have been a goodly number of "hits" and "near enough for us" kinds of hits, that I'm comfortable waiting for a couple of interesting dates. One was March 28th, although it appears now that it might be around March 26th as some fine tuning in the model has recently happened. Also, we're looking at a big "global conflict" attribute set around the end of August (with two international crisis to unfold over the summer, plus lots of other detail for subscribers to the series).
Which brings us to this morning. What's fascinating is that we don't know what the "context change" will be (although we might get more indications as we get closer and immediacy values within the language unfold a bit more.)
But what's my personal guess?
And the context change might be something completely out of left field. As Cliff tells understudy Igor at HalfPastHuman, "It could also be a giant earth-eating space goat" - something that we don't have a word for in the software's traveling lexicon, just as we didn't have "terrorism" in the lexicon prior to 9/11 - so we got aspects of military, paramilitary, and accident.
As we wind up February, the context change could be (take your pick) a global climate event (global storm or maybe a spring hurricane hitting Miami), A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, nukes on Iran because even though they may not be enriching, they are still opening their oil bourse (and you saw Norway is now talking about selling oil for Euros), along with what might be a sleeper cell attack on America from within.
Then there are the real outliers in the data: pole shift (language around which is up) UFO's - way up compared with last year, and Planet X / intergalactic dust cloud discussions.
All these things are lurking as potential developments, along with bird flu, so it will just be a matter of time till we know. But the waiting makes me nuts - as if that's a future condition.
Oh yeah, the context change could also be something so subtle that people won't notice it.
GDP Falls Behind Inflation While the prices of goods at the store have been going up at a nearly 4% rate (as reported, and more like 7-8% as experienced) we read this morning that the fourth quarter GDP was going up at a measly 1.6% annual rate...
Traveling George Mr. Bush goes to India shortly. Web bots hint at (among other things) a) misspeaking on the road and b) building tensions at home while he's gone. We're on gaffe watch as a result.
Housing Slowing Another topic I touched on last during during the radio interview last night was an attempt to answer the question has the housing bubble started to implode yet? Hold on, because the People's Economist's answer here is long and arduous.
First, we have to recognize that yes, there has been some press lately, including the slowing US housing numbers out Monday suggesting that the bubble may have reached its zenith and beyond.
Neither should we overlook the idea that the housing bubble is a global phenomena that is nibbling at prosperity in countries like Japan (where starts are also down) and the UK which finds itself in a similar situation.
But hold on a minute, before you panic. I pointed out something to subscribers to our premium service (www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm) several weeks back: It appears there is a well coordinated effort of the G7/G-8 to instigate a global round of inflation of equities and other instruments in order to cause a short term bout of inflation to preserve the values in real estate equity. (That's why the Dow is going up when inflation numbers come out - the Dow is being prices like a hard asset - a very strange turn indeed.)
In the background, the Fed, you'll recall, is less interested in maintaining "honest money [e.g. money that will have the same purchasing power tomorrow as it does today] than it is in maintaining predictability of monetary performance. In other words, the Fed's deep thinkers know that if we have some measure of inflation, the country can survive with its power class holding on to the reigns of power and to some extent, the retirement savings of the Baby Boomers intact. That's why our Global Index (and aggregate of more than a half dozen stock markets and available to subscribers) has made a move above trend line recently. I expect this came well in advance of the global bad news about housing.
Of course, the $64 gazillion dollar question is whether this global inflation plan will work. Short term my answer is yes, or Elaine and I would not have purchased the adjoining 16 acres. Long term, it will all blow up at some point because when corporations run out of ways to cut costs they cut worker incomes and cut workers, which is what brings about deflation and TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) financially. Consumption drops and the economic engine reversed and drives the world into the dirt - as happened in the 1930's.
What's refreshing to see is that I'm not alone as a voice in the wilderness saying that both the republicans and democrats are virtually identical in their "me too" solutions because both have been co-opted by corporate support. And who do you suppose is also thinking this way?
Third Party Al! I'm just tickled that the banker's economist, Al Greenspan, is hinting that a third party actually has a chance in 2008.
Gag me: A hand-picked Bush successor (Jeb?) or Hellary? That's a choice? Be serious. (or at this hour, be cereal, I don't care...).
I gotta mark this date: the People's Economist and Greenspan agreeing on something. That hasn't happened since Greenspan's honest support of gold in...er.... was it 1964?
Monday Feb 27, 2006 Bot Hit: Restrictions on Travel Starting We couldn't help but notice that one of the web bot long standing calls for "restrictions on travel" is now widely surfacing as another meme - one that will likely grow throughout the summer months as the actual restrictions begin to propagate.
While the first state in India has gone essentially into poulyty semi-lock down conditions, there's a report that in England preparations are now being made to restrict travel - specifically from foreign countries.
This is starting to ripple out into the economic community - our main interest here - as one city is locked down. But while this is going on, we read reports that this outbreak is having no impact yet on tourist travel to India.
While this has been something that has repeatedly shown up in web bot runs (pointing more toward a summer date for US populous impacts) we have to wonder what the impact of a global set of restrictions on travel would have. Could this be the beginning of the end of globalism? One has to appreciate the huge scope of foreign trade to appreciate that even a modest slowdown in trade would result in shortages as America's just-in-time stocking systems generally have less than a week or two of goods in country, and in many supermarkets, the goods on hand may8 be as little as three days.
To review the supply chain: A modern grocery store may have 10,000 items in stock, and when you go through the checkout stands with their scanners, this automatically builds a pick list at the warehouse and within a day or two, the goods that you have just purchased are replaced. The problems arise when the pick list goes to the warehouse and there's nothing in stock there - and the goods have been halted at the source or en route.
Not to put the fear of God in you on Monday, but if I could make a suggestion that the next time those Campbell Chunky Soups go on sale that you pick up a few cans. That and toilet paper for a week or three. A little bit of planning now (and stocking the larder) could make you actually look forward to not going to work for a week or two, should it come to that here in the US..
I consider myself blessed because virtually everything I do is virtual - so as another idea - if your company doesn't have some kind of "work at home" via the internet plan, this might be a fine time to start talking that up at the office. Such a plan isn't just a "killer flu pandemic" alternative. It could also save many companies in the event of an oil crisis.
Over time, I would be surprised if many companies don't wide up having one or two days a week that employees are encouraged to work at home. Remember how "Casual Fridays" started in response to a change of fashion? I expect that over the next few months, some forward-thinking firms, especially in industries where the output is "intellectual property" (e.g. law firms, architects, accountants, etc.).
Seeing this kind of thing (and driven by some huge distances) I implemented with my colleagues in the California audio engineer school something I've labeled non-local accounting using QuickBooks online coupled with scanned and secure FTP'ed records, and www.paycycles.com. The bottom line of our "rethinking of accounting" - which led to this non-local accounting approach - allowed the San Diego accounting firm to do a complete audit with the CEO in Florida and the business itself in Alhambra, CA.
So bird flu, oil shortage, or just saving a pile on travel expenses, about the only physical thing for accountants to do in such a situation is to make a 2-hour on-site to confirm that yes, there's a business there....
It's my thought that most businesses can rethink and restructure to provide for significant non-local work. No reason you have to be in the office to make sales calls, right?
Carry Trade Ticking Say what you will about Lyndon LaRouche, they've gotten it exactly right on the impact of Japan starting to charge interest again when it comes to funding the Yen carry trade which has been keeping the world afloat financially. The way it works is this: Big investors go to Japan, borrow money at essentially zero interest, then buy US bonds (or whatever with a high yield), and pocket the spread. Got it? Now that may be about to change as Japan is facing pressures to end the free ride for fat cats.
If you don't happen to admire Lyndon LaRouche (he's sometimes painfully on point), maybe the report in the Business Telegraph (UK) will be a little more palatable. But not likely. Game over is game over.
New Madrid Worries As if you need another reason to rethink your personal preparedness, the feds are looking at the New Madrid fault as a possible source of some future - or next - mega quake. But, you're all set: food, water, batteries for the radio, etc, right?
Poison Money Meme? The FBI says for sure that the suspicious substance that was found in a university dorm room in Austin, Texas was not the deadly poison ricin. The most interesting part of the story to me was where the suspicious powder was found: In a role of quarters. It's almost too convenient that a low-level meme (though virus) "poison(ed) money" could arise from this.
Jail Riots Increasing You might remember a couple of weeks ago we had the jail rioting in California? Today we are reading about al Qaida and Taliban leading a jail riot in Afghanistan where 30+ have been killed.
Philippine Fallout In a previous report about how the future predictive software of www.halfpasthuman.com had been mentioning that government instability would follow the problems at two alpine lakes (Titicaca and the one in the Philippines), I'd draw you attention to the fact that 16 people have now been arrested in connection with the alleged Philippine coup plot. At the same time, political opposition says the "emergency measures" adopted by president Mrs. Arroyo are going too far. What's a girl to do?
Israel's Circular Reference You know what a circular reference is, right? (click here if you don't). So here's how the circular reference applies in Israel: Israel cuts off oil to Palestine, because they can not pay, because Israel has cut off tax and customs revenues to Palestine!
Iran Defused? The report today is that Russia and Iran have come to terms over an enrichment deal. Whether this is enough to keep bombers from flying in March remains to be seen, but such could be the case. That would leave the US target-less, unless of course we turn our attention to Venezuela where president Chavez is talking again about turning down (or off) US oil exports.
Now we see the footwork of the dancers. The US has been preparing a human rights report which will slam the Chavez government. So, rather than wait for the report to come out, the Venezuela government is on the offense, attacking the report in advance. It's kind of rich for the US to talk about human rights: Our Constitutional right have been nearly suspended by the Patriot Act, there's the Abu Ghraib Prison sadism scandal, the US flying "suspects" to countries of convenience for "interrogation", and then we have Gitmo and denying due process to anyone labeled a "terrorist". (Did I forget to mention just ignoring the FISA Court requirements for domestic surveillance?) So yeah, in my books, both sides have dirty hands when it comes to human rights - and anything we see now is more or less positioning to keep the oil coming to Norte Americanos.
Not that I want to sit in a gas line either, but as I've offered before, higher gas taxes would have driven people to more sensibly sized cars, and would have prevent States from auctioning off public highways so they could become the empty freeways of the Upper Class. But could we stop hiding from reality and get our greed and politics out in the open for a discussion rather than hiding behind BS items like "human rights?"
Of course, there's still the Iranian oil bourse problem to deal with.
Hil Hell There's a Drudge Report scoop this morning on how both George Bush and Karl Rove expect Hillary Clinton to win the primary, but be defeated in the general election of 2008. While it's amusing to read how Mrs. Forgive Bill is raging about how republicans are sick of Bush, as I see it, Hil is just a continuation of the same elitist crowd that is now working hard to keep the same old, same old in place in DC in 2008. For my vote, I'd turn 'em all out and get back to the idea of citizen legislators who believe government is the servant of the people, rather than the other way around. Something the democrats have failed to stand for and which since Nixon worked for Ike, republicans have disavowed, taking more government lessons from the Kremlin's playbook than our Beloved Constitution.
Ah, but that's just me wishing for small central government, single worker families, no (or minimal) foreign entanglements, and other globalist threatening ideas that this Great Country was founded upon.
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