Problems of Empire

This has been one heck of a week, but it might all be encapsulated with the report this week on on subscription side, Peoplenomics.com, with the working title "Problems of Empire and Elasticity".  In other words, how far in any particular direction can world events be stretched before something's got to give.

Although the most immediate example is the thwarted attack yesterday on a huge oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, there are other huge concerns.  One obvious flashpoint is Iraq.  But how does an individual investor playing with minimum size bets in the investment casino figure it?  That's our problem this week over at Peoplenomics - which I'm told is worth 10-times the $30 a year cost.

Chemtrail Jets

I asked a very serious question yesterday about a snip that the web bots had picked up during their question for future language having to do with a supposed "chemtrail airbase" in Northern California.  Reader Cliff Mickelson was kind enough to send in the following, which he also posted over at www.surfingthepocalyse.com:

"The following excerpt is from an email I just received from my sister who lives in California. She reports the following:

"As we passed on Hwy 18 from Adelento to Victorville, we passed a massive building next to the old abandoned Victorville Airforce station. We had been observing this for miles and at first thought the white pointy things in front of it was a solar array. However, as we passed it it became obvious they were planes, many, many planes, resembling domestic airplanes, but no windows, and varied tail colors, but no other markings. I think I know one point of origin of the mysterious cobweb planes. The sign in front of the closely guarded entrance read: Global Access: Southern California Logistics Research."

Hmmm...VERY interesting! GLOBAL ACCESS, eh? Does anyone out there know any more about this? Anyone living around the San Bernadino, Victorville, Barstow Area?

Would love to know just what "Global Access" and "Southern California Logistics Research" means in Government double-speak! "

Before you conclude that this is the "home of chemtrails", I have to point you to the web site for the operation that seems like it's a specialized cargo-oriented airport. So whether chemtrail producing aircraft operate from this facility, we'll may never know. On the other hand, a major cargo-specialty operation near LA makes sense.  Hmmm...maybe I will call their PR firm Monday and ask who the owners are...

Now it's 22 Ports

Speaking of cargo and trade: I guess this sort of gets us back to the neighborhood of cargo operations being run by foreign-based companies.  The White House is digging in.  And the Teamsters are taking a firm stand against it.  And a few people with good memories have suggested that we notice the role of the Carlyle Group (often associated with Bush I) a while back and its role in handling of US cargo.

But now we read that the number of ports involved is as high as 22 if you look at the totality of the pending deal says Jerome Corsi over at World New Daily. UPI reports 21 ports. Delaware Online reported the number at 20. The Virginia Pilot puts the number at 19 in one report.

For our coverage, we'll just jump to reporting "about two dozen" are involved as the details of the deal have leaked out. What the hell.

George, Land Barroon.

No typo, it's Land Barroon - pronounced as you might split the difference between Land Baron and Buffoon.  We closed yesterday on our additional 16 acres, which included an ag exemption for tree farming, and I worked until dark last night with my lawn tractor which I've abused and beaten into a mini-Brush Hog.  When the rain slows down (a welcome event) I'll get the "Posted" signs and the surveillance cameras put in...

Thrift Counts

While I was sending out a couple of copies of our ebook, "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less..." I was reminded that I haven't said anything about the "intake vortex generator" that I installed recently in our old Daewoo.  While the first tank seemed to be up (30.1 MPG from 27 previously) the next run came in at 27 even, so I can't say with certainty that it adds much - if anything).  Subjectively, the car seems to have a little more torque, downshifting less on hills.  More interesting?  I couldn't help but notice when I was working on the intact duct that although it should ideally be smooth, it was rough, ridged, and wasn't what I would expect if the intake system had been thoroughly tuned.  We'll see - but for now, tiny gain to no downside.  However, if you have port injections (rather than injections where there's a single injector into airflow) I wouldn't expect any improvement and perhaps some decrease.  Bendy intakes like our, it may help a tad - at least that's how it looks at the moment.

Pass It On

Nothing makes getting up every morning before dawn and writing worth it like knowing that you've getting something from reading this site.  Please tell your friends about it by clicking here and inserting their email addresses...

Friday Feb 24, 2006

Neither Durable, Nor Good

The January Durable goods report is out. It tumbled 10.2% in January, led by transportation declines (think cars and Boeing).

Curfew Weekend

It seems to me that telling people that are in the midst of a civil war that you're imposing a curfew (day and night) is somewhat pointless.  Curfews only keep the honest and law abiding inside.  Still, there aren't many policy options to deal with open warfare, so authorities in Iraq are trying the curfew approach while the influence of the clerics continues to grow and the prospects of achieving the objectives of the war continue to dim.

I haven't mentioned polls lately, the the last one I saw last week had Bush approval ratings back under 40% - and that was before the Port Sellout policy disaster. I wouldn't be surprised to see presidential approval ratings drop to the mid 30's next.

But returning to my point, another country is sneaking up on curfews is what?

Philippines Coup Coming?

Ever since the web bots made their most recent (remarkable) call about flooding, mudslides, and alpine lakes (which turned out to be at Lake Titicaca and in the Philippines where the whole village was lost under mud, we've been eyeing the governmental problems of the Philippines, figuring that it would surely be the government in trouble referred to in software modelspace.  Yup, revolution is in the air and the government in power is tightening down.

Saudi Curfew Ahead?

Is the reported attack on an oil refinery in Baqiq, in eastern Saudi Arabia, the start of an uprising in the Kingdom?  We'll watch, but it sounds suspiciously like the start of a recent TV movie that led to gas lines if I recall the plot. I'm looking for a Baqiq clampdown next.

[The future predictive technology tells us to expect restrictions on travel this summer, but whether that's from bird flu travel restrictions or something like an overnight oil embargo in the wake of an Iran attack remains to be seen.].

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All of this talk about curfews should be used by the wise parent dealing with teenagers in the following manner this weekend:  "Billy (or Sally), you be sure and get home by 11 PM tonight.  Remember, I am worse than an MP, and if this was Baghdad, you wouldn't be able to go out even in the daytime...."

I note that Andrew Hanon writes in the Edmonton Sun about how "Curfews brand all kids as bad kids."  Maybe, but my experience: they are (bad), if you turn your back on 'em for even a second.

The People's Economist, while an admittedly  under qualified/poor/dismal parent, suggests that you never under estimate the power of peer pressure (and social music featuring 'ho's and "pop a cap in yo ass") to ruin otherwise promising high potential kids. Curfews are rules and the world's cooking up new rules every day.  They better get used to it earlier than later. 

Next Port: Limbo

The administration's drive to give a foreign company (UAE) control of a half dozen plus US ports is now stymied. New Jersey/New Work ports are going to court to break the operating lease.  The public is mad and CONgress is planning hearings.

But, as one lawmaker reportedly said, "The administration ignored Congress on the FISA Court law, why should they listen to us on Ports?"  Why indeed?

Bots: Earth Changes Ahead

Remember the tsunami that the web bots forecast in August of 2004 and which came to pass on December 26th of that year?  Well, this weekend's web bot run (Part 4 of the 806 series) has some really dire news coming out of the flip side of the world.  In a nutshell, you'll recall that prior to the tsunami in 2004, we had a big earthquake (8 point something) at Macquarie Island and that was followed by a lot of reports of UFO's, loud booming noises from the south, and these sequence seemed to presage the actual event.

Well, as Cliff and Igor at www.halfpasthuman.com were watching the data this week, it seems that right around the time of the Mozambique quakes this week (2, by the way, not just one) the reports of "booms" and "flashes of light to the south" have been popping up in Australia and from half a dozen ships at sea.  As you might recall, the web bots have been talking about two lands/islands rising, so we have to wonder whether this is again a precursor series of events.

The lag time between Macquarie and the tsunami was on the order of three weeks.

Not that it will happen overnight this time - could be many months off.  The imagery seems to deal with millions of people walking on millions of dead - so I found myself asking last night whether this will be a hugely impacting global event some months off, or whether it will be soon with fewer people involved: The bots have problems getting numbers right.  Remember, they screwed up the forecast of 'city returned to the mud' [New Orleans, forecast months ahead of time] as they predicted 13-million would be involved and it was only 1.3 million that met the prediction of 'walking north.' 

So take it with a grain of salt or two, but if you wake up in a couple of months to hear that a couple of new land masses have popped up in the oceans south of India and between Australia and Africa around 90 East, and that sea level is some number of feet higher, remember where you heard the news before it happened.

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One other oddity:  Haven't traced it back to the source yet, but there was an interesting chemtrail snip that the bots reported back - something about an air base in Northern California where there's been extremely unusual jet traffic - complete with odd jets that have no windows and are somehow associated with the chemtrail meme.  So if you live in Northern California, see a bunch of jets with no windows and high security, please drop me a note.   Could be nothing, could be something. Odds are it is nothing, but it jumped out of the data stream an an "Oh, how strange..."  That said, something that might pop in coming weeks/months either as fact or a new emerging urban legend/rumor. 

Web bot subscription info is at www.halfpasthuman.com and although the software seems to see through time, it's still highly experimental and we make no claims about it...

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One reader wanted to know why Cliff, Igor, and I aren't rich.  My answer:

We could [go and trade markets with it], but actually don't for a very good reason - two come to mind. First, it would be vastly unfair for us to go into the markets and trade on future developments. We would be victimizing people on the other side of the trade who did not see what was coming as we occasionally can. Secondly, money is not what life is about.

If word got out that we were making a killing using a "time machine" how long before the powers that be ended our visits to earth? It's really much better not to get trapped in "thingness"...

OK, and I did tell you I was buying silver in July when you could have loaded up for under $7 an ounce.  What do you expect for free?  Sheesh...

Nukes, Nukes, Get'cher Free Nukes!

A hawkeyed reader, who we'll call Jimbo, tripped over an interesting bit of not-widely disseminated reality Thursday - something he passes along as a curious data point to ponder while the U.S. whips up anti-Iran nuclear proliferation fears:

I'm sure you've already read this, but if not I think it would useful.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20060222&articleId=2032 

From the text (and this makes me think "Oh My God!"):

"The US has supplied some 480 B61 thermonuclear bombs to five non-nuclear NATO countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, and one nuclear country, the United Kingdom. Casually disregarded by the Vienna based UN Nuclear Watch, the US has actively contributed to the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Western Europe.

As part of this European stockpiling, Turkey, which is a partner of the US-led coalition against Iran along with Israel, possesses some 90 thermonuclear B61 bunker buster bombs at the Incirlik nuclear air base. (National Resources Defense Council, Nuclear Weapons in Europe , February 2005) "

While I realize that Pakistan and the US are on different orders of magnitude in their ability to supply nuclear arms, I would say that anyone who thinks bin Laden or Iran cannot posses such a device is delusional.

And who knows, maybe they've come from one of these places, eh?

Our friend Jimbo hasn't completely internalized that the way the world works these days is this: If the corporate side (that one might label: profiteering Western Elite) want to give out nukes or take oil for pennies from indigenous peoples in places like Venezuela, Bolivia or Nigeria, and give nukes out to friends who pinkie swear allegiance to the corporate outcome, that's all OK.  But, should indigenous peoples try to stand up to the boardroom bottom line crowd, that gets squashed with the full force and fury of "law". And if the UN won't give the corporate crowd the "right law" the vigilante mob takes over (label: coalition of the willing") and the Wild West Income Statement Slingers are on the loose. Yee Haw.

Now, I'm not in favor of Iran having nukes, but then again, I'm not in favor of England, Pakistan, Israel, or South Africa having them either. And especially not Canada.  My God, Canada can't even play hockey any more!  In fact, my thinking lately goes to the notion that at some point, if a country has nukes, they will use them - and that's a bad thing for humans.  Why heck, that might even be bad for the profiteering boardroom crowd, if they'd think about market size, rather than next quarter's whisper number for a moment.

Foreign Highway Perspective

Cruising down the highway to hell? While Texas, Indiana, and other states continue the crooked scam to sell off public assets to private companies, a several observant reader in Italy writes in that it seems like deja vu, all over again, as Yogi Berra used to say:

"Hi George, I am Luigi from Italy, an old-time reader.

As regards the ' increasing movement afoot by governments in Indiana and Texas, to name just two states where kleptomaniacs as lawmakers are eyeing various cockamamie schemes to lease state taxpayer funded highways to private businesses.' that you mentioned:

In case you don't know, I tell you that in my poor country this happened circa fifty years ago. Now the state of the 'private' highways has become proverbially pathetic (for instance, drivers often remain trapped for 24 hours or more within the highway in case of snow, and then they have to pay the ticket nonetheless). The 'lease' rate is something about 20 milions (in $) a year (total for all), I'm not making it up; while the average cost of a ticket is about 1$ for 10-12 miles (using your metric system). This way the 'owners' get increasingly rich, and of course they increasingly corrupt the politicians, having back increasingly favours for any kind of business speculation (usually in real estates).

One of the obvious consequences is that the cost of transport of anything is a 'little' high ( for instance the UPS carrier charges around 12$ for a typical private package, islands not included (Italy is only 600 miles long, plus or minus).

People here complain a lot about the highways and the fares, but are at most dimly aware of the causes. For comparison, in the neighbour Switzerland there is a one-year 100 franc (about) payment for an unlimited use of the highways.

I could never have imagined that the USA (country that I know pretty well, and that I loved) could slowly morph in a large Italy+cannons (ditto for money printing, lack of democracy, but I will spare you the rest). Of course you know very well why, and you helped many, included me, to understand better what is happening in each one's country."

An Italy + cannons is a frightful thought - and perhaps too accurate for most to consider. Nevertheless, a look to Italy to see America's future seems in order.

Investing in End Times

That's our topic in this current edition of Peoplenomics, our companion subscription service.  At $30 a year I'm told that it is seriously under priced, but the idea is to get ideas out and about.  If you enjoy the material offered on our free site here, remember the $30 annual subscription fee is what pays for the bandwidth.  Click here for how to sign up.  The interesting highlight of this week's report is how many religions have a similar view of End Times...

Thursday February 23, 2006

Descent into Hell

I'm looking for the situation in Iraq to deteriorate even more quickly now, in the wake of the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra this week.  As it has been explained to me (and apologies to my Muslim readers if I don't get this precisely right), the Shiites believe that the Golden Mosque, bombed this week in Samarra, is where the 12th Imam will first make His appearance.   Or would have.

To put this into a Western framework, it would be nearly akin to a group of Christians believing that Jesus would make His appearance at the corner of Main and First Street in a mid-sized town, and then another Christian sect blowing it up. You see the likely outcome, right? That's more or less what Iraq's Muslim communities are going through now.

The effect of all of this is to fan the flames of civil war, says Iraq's foreign minister.   46 bodies have been found so far, says one report.

This change (or acceleration) in the descent into civil war in Iraq is also having a dramatic impact on the US Army's Future Combat Systems (FCS) decision making processes.  As Major General Roger Nadeua and his colleagues are finding, the Iraq War is shaping almost every military expenditure these days and urban fighting is the new baseline.

Screwing Drivers

There's an increasing movement afoot by governments in Indiana and Texas, to name just two states where kleptomaniacs as lawmakers are eyeing various cockamamie schemes to lease state taxpayer funded highways to private businesses.  If you're in Indiana, be very afraid.  Lawmakers are showing they have all the spine of jellyfish when it comes to dealing with budget issues and they are, as we see it, once again looking for the lazy way out, and if that happens to include screwing the citizens who paid for the roads in the first place, oh well.

Here in Texas, a similar grab for public infrastructure is underway, too.  And bet me that Hummer driver Arnold won't come down in favor of a controversial California toll road scam. This is about lawmakers being elitists.  Fix it for the rich, they figure, and screw the little people.

Is the "right" answer to give up-scale commuters preferential treatment because they can afford to pay a hefty toll?  Hell no.  Government is not supposed to underwrite one class of citizens against another - and by setting up an economic barrier, tolls, the lower income part of society becomes less mobile, and spends more time commuting than the upper crust. The rich get richer and the poor get screwed-er.

Sorry, but this is just a horrible example of corporatism and elitism run amok. It's appalling that no one in mainstream media calls it what it is.  They don't understand that there's a mood of rebelliousness (as the web bots labeled it in advance) brewing in what's left of America's middle class. 

If anyone proposes thieving of roads around here, I will send campaign contributions to people who oppose such chicanery.  America is (or at least was) a land of equality of access.  If the states need money for highways, raise the gas taxes (which they will do anyway) and stop trying to shove theft of rights and access down the throats of working class Americans.

This is just one more reason to throw everyone in CONgress and the State House out next time around.  They've all got their hands out and the idea is that we're supposed to have citizen legislators, not professional corporate puppets with their hands out.  (Texas' Ron Paul is the lone exception I've found in CONgress.)

(More in a second after my blood pressure drops a bit...)

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A Seriously Large Withdrawal

Speaking of crooks:  An "armed and dangerous" gang in England posing as police have pulled off what's by some media reports a nearly $70-million dollar armed robbery. Bank of England is only owning up to $43.5 million worth - still enough for a good bottle of wine at dinner.

Killing During Katrina?

There are reports beginning to surface that dozens of hospital patients were given lethal injections during or just after Hurricane Katrina ripped through the Big Easy.  Apparently there's a secret investigation underway (not so secret now, huh?). No numbers to put to this yet but remember that 34 nursing home residents in a separate case reportedly drown in the hurricane.  But the question hangs: Are there "mercy killing" revelations to come?

Meantime, the White House is planning to issue its own report on the federal response to the hurricane(s).  Not that we expect their pending report to be objective, however. I don't even know why they're bothering.  TV coverage sort of said it all, except to the terminally stupid.

But then again, the 9/11 Commission report ignored the real questions (what happened to the gold in the basement of the WTC and why did Building 7 with all the SEC investigation records fall down) so no reason the same historical revisionist approach shouldn't be tried by the spin doctors again...so yeah, I think I answered my own question about why they're issuring a Katrina report, huh?

Another Disillusioned Republican

Yet another real republican surfaces in an email:

"Could the growing shift from doe-eyed worship of Shrub to suspicion and disgust be the context change? It seems to me that when you take a body of people, raise them to fever pitch with propagandistic love of Big Brother, and then dash that image with exposure of the man behind the curtain, that the backlash will be much greater than if those people started with a healthy skepticism and went down from there. In other words, a shift from a towering high to a profound low might be enough to show up in the bots as a large context change.

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/?q=node/8018 

As I remember, I was the lone wolf crying that Shrub was an antichrist way back in 1998. Then, I was nearly lynched for not supporting empirical campaigns into two sovereign nations. Now, I'm just a voice among many who want to  (impeach) Shrub and bring the boys home.

Amazing how fads work."

Ain't it, though.

Quaking and Shaking

7.5 quake in Mozambique yesterday is "not unusual" say the geologists that Xinhua has been talking to.

Read and Click Lesson

I have given up counting the number of people who have sent along a link to the story out of Europe that a group is predicting an  80% chance of an economic collapse toward the end of March (coincident with what the web bots have pointed to as a period of context shift for months now).  While I always appreciate links to material that we haven't covered, please take the time to follow links and read this site daily.  The economic story about March collapse was covered (with the link) on Tuesday.  Click here and follow the link and you'll see what I mean.  I try not to miss much - as the current case shows. 

In a way, this is an interesting phenomena...it might mean that people in general are feeling more and more pressured at the same time more are "awakening" and seeing what's really going on in the world.  My advice?  Have another cup of coffee and relax (don't dwell on the cognitive dissonance of that too long, or your end up nutty like me).

Universe Being Playful

I love it when the Universe is being playful, as it has been in my life this week.  First the data points.

Data point #1:  Out of the blue this past weekend, I rerouted the genset exhaust and re-installed the wiring so I could bring it online if needed within a minute, if necessary.  I had it disconnected while I'm reconstructing the UrbanSurvival Office Complex.

Data point #2:  Monday I had an urge (for no particular reason) to charge the electric start battery on the genset to make sure it was topped off.  Then on Tuesday (again for no particular reason other than an urge/feeling that it needed to be done) I put the backup starting battery on charge and topped it off.  Early Wednesday I put the float charger on the genset.

Data point #3: It has been maybe five years since I talked to the president of what used to be Cruising Equipment Company where I had the pleasure of being part of a genius-level team of instrumentation designers. The business agenda item was to confirm the percentage of advertising that a heavy R&D firm can carry while manufacturing and marketing a product and remain close to breakeven.  (This pertained to a client I'm consulting.)  Along the way, we got to talking about his current (pun intended as you'll see) operation: A firm he created to design and build generator autostart systems.

Data point #4 - Here's the playful part.  Universe decides to cause a 1+ hour long power outage in our area.  Now, I don't usually  even think about the generator, auto start systems and so forth in my day to day meanderings.  But, there it was last night - almost a textbook case of how Universe and I play.  I get inklings and urges, which when followed, usually keep me either ultra-prepared or out of harms way.

So what were the learning point that Universe threw in my path?

• I learned that if you have an unpublished telephone address, the Trinity Valley Electric Co-op automated trouble reporting system won't accept an outage report.  I put in a neighbor's number instead, know it was further along the outage afflicted circuit.

• I confirmed that the local 2-meter ham repeated was up and I was able to confirm that power was still on in the "big city" (pop.18,000) 12-miles away.

• Confirmed that within 3-minutes of start up, we could be back watching CNN in case the source of the outage was some serious/life threatening/regional in nature.

• Our neighbors were equally well prepared - and they have tested their system - but they weren't being as rabid about getting reconnected to the outside world.  (I went through some checks and the satellite internet connection was fine...)

• I discovered the genset was seriously lugging down and pouring out the black smoke - a problem which was traced back to Elaine's running of the clothes dryer when the water heater came on.  Made a note to myself to make sure to pull the breaker on the hot water heater so it doesn't cycle on during dyer use when we're on the backup power system.

Other than that, the gen set worked flawlessly for the hour and a half we needed it. 

To put the evening's events into a framework that's a tad philosophical, I find that when people spend a little time as an observer of their own life unfolding that the number of such Universe being playful events comes into focus.  Not every day, not even every week.  But just often enough so you can get a good smile out of it - as I did last night.  Hunches, coincidence, event.  Sort of like learning to unconsciously plug in to the same wave the web bots track.

Wednesday Feb 22, 2006

Damn!  I'm going to be right!

Consumer Prices Soar At 10% Annual Rate!

Well, you can't say I didn't warn you in advance - as you will recall that I told subscribers back in early December in my Annual Forecast issue of www.peoplenomics.com that we would likely see 6.5% annual inflation (at some point 6.5% on a trailing twelve month basis - TTM) in 2006.  Well, sunofagun, I am looking like a genius, because here comes the Consumer Price Report for January and the monthly increase was 8-10th's of one percent which pencils out to 10.0339% annualized!  (The People's Economist takes a long bow)

Worse: Even with "seasonal adjustments" we see now that the monthly rate was 0.7% for the month which is 8.73% annualized.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The January level of 198.3 (1982-84=100) was 4.0 percent higher than in January 2005.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.8 percent in January, prior to seasonal adjustment. The January level of 194.0 (1982-84=100) was 4.1 percent higher than in January 2005.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.7 percent in January on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The January level of 115.2 (December 1999=100) was 3.4 percent higher than in January 2005. Please note that the indexes for the post-2004 period are subject to revision. Previously published and revised data for 2004 and 2005 are shown on page 5.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.7 percent in January, following declines in each of the previous two months. Energy costs increased 5.0 percent in January, its first advance since September and accounted for about 70 percent of the advance in the overall CPI-U. Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy increased 5.7 percent and the index for energy services rose 4.2 percent. The food index rose 0.5 percent in January after increasing 0.1 percent in December. Increases in fresh fruit and vegetable prices accounted for more than half of the 0.5 percent rise in the index for food at home. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent increase in December, reflecting upturns in the indexes for new vehicles and for apparel.

Now, let me peer into the crystal ball: This may very well force the Fed to hike to 5% at their March 28 meeting!  I won't also mention to you that this is precisely the kind of incipient inflationary news the Fed has been fearing.  It's also why the Fed is going to stop publishing their M-3 money measure in March - they want to play hide the sausage and you, my friend, are the "sausagee."

Taiwan Troubles

Maybe you don't play the Taiwan stock market directly, but that country is still a major trading partner of the U.S, so whenever we see a drop of 1.5% overnight, the question "Why?" immediately pops up.  The answer:  Taiwan's president wants to scrap guidelines on reunification with China.  Expect the U.S. to be nervous about this because once China loses confidence that they will be able to peacefully reabsorb Taiwan, they won't have any incentive to wait patiently by.  Reason: The US, spread out with wars on many fronts would have a terrible time combating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan now.

Coming Hot Spot

Another country which could be seeing military/domestic turmoil in short order is Pakistan.  Although the current regime is propped up with US paper (dollars) and rhetoric, reports from in country in the foreign press indicate that pressure is building from the the more militant Islamists that Pakistan become a more religiously guided than corporate co-opted.

Attacking the Shiites

We read this morning that the dome of a Shiite temple in Iraq has been blown up by insurgents. This trouble in Iraq at Samarra is another in the ongoing skirmished in Iraq's civil war that we're hip deep in. In Baghdad, 22 people have been killed by a bus explosion.

End of March Watch

In addition to the Fed Meeting, Israeli elections, and a host of previously other potential emotional release events for the end of March, a reader sent along a link about a huge March 23-26 anti-war demonstration in Cairo (Egypt).

Paging Irwin Allen

At first it seemed like a fine setting for a new L.A. End of the World movie:  Oily slimy stuff oozing out of the ground in L.A.  Blob?  Precursor to a volcano?  "Get the cameras down here from Burbank!"  Ooops.  Scrub that.  Turned out to be nothing more than an oil company injecting hot salt water into an old oil well (a couple of blocks distant) and overdoing things a bit. 

Still, there's a new genre developing in media land.  Remember the movie about terrorists taking over an oil facility in the Middle East (forget the name of it at the moment).  The genre?  Films that deal with oil production at some level here on the brink of Peak Oil.  Movies like Syriana are around the edge of the genre...

Beware of Yellow Snow

Not that kind of yellow snow:  The Russian kind.  What makes it notable is that it's not just yellow, it's also oily, and speculation is that there's some kind of connection with the Russian oil and gas industry.

Lammert (Interpreted)

Fractalist Gary Lammert has been looking at markets with a sense of wonder and foreboding: (As usual, my comments are in blue):

George, part of the macroeconomic saturation growth and decay fractal hypotheses is that the evolution of the smaller unit fractals provide the pattern template data for the larger unit evolution. A x/2.5x/2.5x fractal has been the recurrent growth theme during the second shoulder for the Wilshire and other world indices.

{If you look at markets since 1998, you can see a left should -1998'ish) a "head" in the spring of 2000 - and now a likely completion of the right shoulder.  The x/2.5x/2.5x fractal means that if you take the period of the left shoulder to the peak as x [1998], then you can start sensing that there are some 2.5 * x relationships around... I won't do anything more than to point you in the right direction...but a look for x/2.5x/2.5x relationships might be profitable.

Yesterday a 4/10/10 secondary growth pattern was completed which was 0.45 or .00338 percent less than 30 January 2006's high for the Wilshire - 13016.59 (yesterday's high was 13016.15) The British FTSE is at day 58 of a 29/58 day sequence with the expected nonlinear second subfractal break at any time (x/2x-2.5x) The CAC is near its absolute break point near the 2.5x limit of a second subfractal evolution.

(Just like Elliott counting has Capitalized A,B,C, fractals have their lower case equivalents called sub-fractals instead of a,b,c of Elliott.  Some of these are in "pop" mode.)

The 4/10/10 daily growth evolution for the Wilshire was a small lower high shoulder (13016.15)sitting to the right of the 75 week high and the 62 day high(13016.59) which was contained in 75th week. A technician's double top for the world's largest composite index is apparent.

(While it may look like a double top, remember we have six years of inflation to figure into things, and so it's really more like an 80% retracement if you chart the markets in constant dollar terms... thanks Al, Ben!)

The x/2.5x/2.5x pattern is a reality. It is verifiable. This myopic fractalist's interpretation assumes that this pattern has significance and has a relationship with the inflection point or valuation saturation area of the US 140 year plus Second Grand Fractal - where a nonlinear phenomena - characteristic of the end of second fractals might occur.

(Remember this 1998 to present fractal is itself a subfractal if you back waaaay far back from the charts of markets to take in back to Revolutionary times.)

Multiple world equity indices with different fractal bases are aligned for a prototypical second subfractals' nonlinear drop. Money has rotated out of the smaller equities with focus on a few of the DJIA components, causing higher highs for this little brother of the Great Wilshire. Composite volume for the recent valuation growth was low - and taken as a whole the last 22 days of trading can be interpreted as a distribution process. Insiders are selling high tech stocks at historical sell/buy ratios. 11/22 of 27-28/27-28 remains a plausible primary decay scenario.   (You can pencil out the timing if you're trying to play this)

A replay of the 1929 primary fractal drop may very well be (well) underway. (And when she goes...)

Deep in the Republic

(That'd be Texas) A couple of totally Texan things have happened to me in the past 12-hours.  First, while walking from the house over to the office last night, I darned near tripped over an armadillo.  He made the appropriately indignant snorty sound and trundled off toward the south woods.  Made a heck of a mess of the yard digging for worms before I showed up.  I'm trying to figure out how to teach them to eat the wild onions that have popped up in amazing numbers this year.  I figure I wouldn't be as likely to trip over them if I smelled  their breath from 10-yards down wind.

The other was an email proposing that I buy into some allegedly hang over resistant Tequila deal offered by a trading company.  While the prices looked tempting:

Prices of this Premium 100% agave Tequila: Anejo $15.97 USD / Bottle 750 ML at 40 Alc / Vol. Reposado $10.66 USD / Bottle 750 ML at 40 Alc / Vol. Silver $8.25 USD / Bottle 750 ML at 40 Alc / Vol. Ex-Work Prices. Payment terms: By Letter of Credit, Up-front payment or combination of both.

I have never seen a Tequila yet where drinking more than a modest amount (half a bottle?) in an evening wouldn't result in at least 24-hours of repentance.  Probably from the former Nigeria President has died leaving $20-million crowd. Sell to people's dreams, I guess...

Tuesday Feb 21, 2006

March to March

It looks like I'm not the only one looking forward to the period around the end of March for a global context shift in the flow of news.  Although Cliff, at www.halfpasthuman.com (creator of the forward looking linguistic shift analysis "web bots") thinks I'm too "event oriented," the evidence continues to pile up that the end of March will be one of those phenomenal turning points.  For example, I read this morning how a group out of Europe figures that there's an 80% chance that we'll face an economic meltdown plus a global political crisis to grow out of the showdown with Iran.

While the showdown is only a "potential event" at this time, the reports that Iran has reached some rudimentary agreement with Russia on reprocessing, is probably premature.  Stalling for time comes to mind.

It will be one heck of an eclipse this year on the 29th....

R&R War: Signs

On the "Religion front" of our "Religion and Resource War" scenario: Another marker readers are looking at is the curious juxtaposition of the Muslim outrage at the political cartoon from Denmark on the one and, and the sentencing of an historian yesterday to prison for questioning the Holocaust.  (The Danish by the way are today defending their actions reacting to the cartoon crisis, )

Several readers have written in suggesting that with Islamists outraged over the cartoon, and Jews outraged at the allegations of (pseudo) historian David Irving, we're seeing what amounts to rallying points of two religious groups ahead of the potential Iran flashpoint.  From this perspective, I expect to see an increase of religious interpretation of secular events as we move forward. More rallying points.

On our "Resource front" oil is up more than a dollar a barrel in early trading today, as Nigerians wage total war to gain more benefit from the Western oil extraction of their resources. Norway, meantime has put 192 lease blocks up for grabs, one of the biggest licensing rounds in 40-years of field development.

Port Worries

A couple of republicans are threatening to take the matter to court as an Arab company is trying to take over management of six ports in the USA.  Homeland Security's Michael Chertoff says the move is OK (there were some strings, he implied) but the critics are coming on strong.

Flying Flu Fears

Yup, bird flu is making its way around the world, carried by wild birds, one assumes.  The only other way for it to spread would be with some assistance from humans and that's already being discussed in various conspiracy-minded circles.  The facts up today are that Hungary is now the 7th nation in the EU to deal with the disease, Egypt and France are testing, and India's government is going house-to-house looking for humans with the virus. Now, don't you feel better known this?

Our here on the byte ranch, I'm struck by the huge number of birds that wintered over here - and it's a noisy cacophony every morning about sunrise.  (I'll try to record it one morning)  But while I'm not too worried about the impact on the grocery industry - which could be threatened mind you, the other aspect of the bird flu is what happens to the global environment?  Bird eat lots of insects - and if we don't have many birds around this year, my expectation is that insect populations could explode.  That could bring along a whole set of extended impacts - more West Nile, and a host of other possibilities.

Trade Alliance

We notice than France and India are getting into a new trade deal which could double trade between the two countries.  While I don't know what the impact will be on US-India trade, it seems reasonable that India's economic growth will be edging toward double digits from its current 7.8% rate.

Locking Up History

Something to keep an eye on, especially if you're a dilettante academic (like the People's Economist) is the move underway at the US National Archives to reclassify lots of government information that had previously been declassified. The question swirling about this morning is whether the newly reclassified documents should have been reclassified.

Monday Fed 20 2006

Checking the Fuses

While I'm sitting here waiting to see what the big context changing event around March 28th will be, I keep looking through the headlines every morning to see what fuses are burning so to speak.  We have several:

• Russia is trying to jawbone Iran into dropping their plans for uranium enrichment. But as Russian media are reporting, the deals offered would all keep Iran from accessing a full fuel cycle, and that's so far been key to Iranian demands.  Tssssttttt......

• In Israel, funding to the Palestinian Authority has been cut off.  Even though Hamas won the election, the headlines now speak of Israel punishing Hamas, and cutting off the wallet seems like the first move.  Tssssttttt...

• Nigerian rebels have claimed a key victory in their fight against corporate oil exploitation, which sent prices higher in markets that were open today.   Tssssttttt...

• Bomb blasts in Iraq have killed 19 more people as the country descends into civil war.  Ah, but it's a democratic civil war and the US plan now is to press separation of Islamic factions by trying to keep religion out of the politics.  Tssssttttt.

• The US ambassador claims that Iran is resupplying insurgents in Iraq. We expect this kind of talk to increase as we move toward the rumored March bombing dates. Tssssttttt.

• In Pakistan, hundreds have been arrested as rioting continues from the Danish publication of a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed. Tssssttttt.

While these events would be worrisome alone, the "fuse story of the day" may very well be the audio interview of Osama bin Laden released today.  In the interview, bin Laden says he doesn't want to be captured alive and also throws a few barbs in the direction of Saddam Hussein.

Here is my specific concern: I'd be willing to bet a beer or three that this latest Osama tape is the beginning of a fuse that will lead to a major terrorist attack within the next 45 days.  His message today is odd. 

While there's nothing in the current web bot run about an immediate terrorist attack threat, I'd have to point out that there may not be a word in our lexicon for some new form of mega terror. 

Immigration Angle

What is in the reports are references to the notion of rebellion. This brings up a frightening thought:  What if bin Laden's message was to start the countdown to a massive coordinated attack on dozens of locations to be executed by hundreds of sleeper cells across the US?  Maybe I have seen one too many episodes of "Sleeper Cell" or  been reading too many immigration reform reports and know too much about the number of OTM's coming in from Mexico. But while the CONgress talks a good immigration game, their legislation is often unfunded.  And that ticks off local police chiefs. They've got local crime to deal with and immigration is down the list a ways.

---

We don't have a word/concept for such an eventuality but the word rebellion is troublesome.  Remember, the web bot's pre-9/11 linguistics went to the idea of "military, accident" and other terms because we didn't have the specific words terror/terrorism/terrorist [attack] in the lexicon.  So I'm left to ponder: Is Osama's latest today effectively lighting of a fuse?  He has already warned us, and so to his way of thinking, attacking America is now acceptable. I hoping I'm wrong, but is it possible that this is his lighting of a big, long fuse?

An astute observer might mistake America's current condition. Although, most of our military is outside the US at the moment, and as one reader reported:

"To show you how desperate the military is for troops to serve in Iraq, a young friend of mine, who is a Seaman on a Boomer (Trident nuclear ballistic missile submarine), was notified that he, and some of the other Seamen serving on the Boomers, may be given sentry training and then deployed to Iraq to serve as a sentry for a period of one year."

Thankfully, America is also the most heavily armed country on earth. And America's foes might under estimate our local/neighborhood ability to organize and defend our country.

Other than maybe buy another box of shells, not much to do to prepare, other than read the info at www./ready.gov.  However, with a "context change" in the cards, I'd sure be out of the markets by mid March.

Port Reversal?

A bid by a foreign company to run wharfage operations in many US ports is getting a second look at the security questions come up in Washington.

Bad for Boeing

Airbus has signed a $2.5-billion deal with India.

Speaking of trade items, China and Vietnam are in hot water for alleged shoe dumping in Europe.  I can't resist asking if the EU thinks they'll be able to give them the book?  (Arrgghhh)

French Fries Plus

McDonalds is in hot water after word leaked out that their French fries contained wheat products along with some dairy products.  How those get into potatoes is a culinary issue to most, but a major health issue to those with celiac sprue disease. McDonald's fries also reportedly are heavier on trans fats than previously reported.

Markets Closed

While the price of gold has popped up a bit, this is a Federal Holiday and so we don't expect too much in the way of economic news today.  Parking meters vary by city, most banks are closed. I'm going to celebrate my 57th birthday today with a trip to a tool sale and a relaxing day away from my consulting duties.

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George Ure, The People's Economist