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Friday May
11, 2012 7:55A CDT
FAQ Subscribe to UrbanSurvival's Daily Financial Post by Email This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. Content mirrored at: http://www.independencejournal.com/, View as Blog (.MOBI) version Opportunity in JPMorgan's Mess? Word is coming out this morning (and it may impact markets going into the weekend) that mega-bank JPMorgan was hit for $2-billion in trading losses over the last six-weeks or so.
The studious news-watcher will start by looking at some of the company's financial numbers which Yahoo serves up over here.
A quick review suggests that the company's $15.1 billion of "enterprise value" will drop to $13-billion, and since market capitalization is has been running (very roughly) 10.3 times market cap, we would expect that multiplier to come down to less than 10 - I could toss 8 or 9 out as wildly thrown darts - market cap might come down to the $10.5 billion kind of area, or a stock price decline of 30-35%.
At least one reader is a little suspicious of the "mistakes" claim: "JPM traders are not dumb - a loss that big seems unlikely to have "just happened". 'Course, just could be my paranoia streak showing..." While "mistakes" sounds plausible, doesn't seem too terribly likely. So, where'd the money go? Not that the feds will go looking, anymore than they went after MF Global. I mean it is and election year, right? Money just seems to get antsy in here...
Not that I'd trade such thoughts...but if the S&P puts in a short-term low next week, another wild-eyed though, then call options from any panic low over this internal blunder might be interesting. What's the old saying? "Buy when there's blood running in the streets?"
France: Bad Goes to Worse Francois Hollande, new incoming president of France, is boning outgoing prez Sarkozy for underplaying the seriousness of the French budget mess. The French are as good at finance as I am at running triathlons: Not especially.
Producer Prices The monthly report on Producer Prices is always as much fun to read as, say, a book on accounting practices. Not too terribly exciting. Still, there are some folks who think the indices have predictive value about inflation or deflation to come, since the finished goods costs are close to what end merchants pay for stock.
If you think of it as a big pipe, you can see it: One end of the pipe has the raw materials going into it: Part way down the pipe are things like sub-assemblies and oil refinery intermediates, and the end of the pipe that plugs in to the retailing industry is where finished goods come out. Got the picture? OK, here's the data:
And why do you suppose this return to deflationary outlook is at hand? A quick check of the most recent three months of M2 money-printing at the Fed shows the money supply at that level - which was pumped up 9.8% in the past year was only increased at an annual rate of 4% in the most recent three months. Makes the case, I think, that deflation is still about and until some of the money comes roaring out of the dead pools of money (locked away doing not much of anything, causing velocity of money to plummet) then deflation is here for a while more and thus out go the dreams of those who sleep with gold under their pillows.
Crude goods down 4.4 while M2 is up 4% annualized, help me here, what's that?" 8.4% deflation annualized? Just looking at it this way... Futures pointed to a downward end to the week. With prices collapsing, why rally?
A lot of the producer price information is not very sexy. The sexy
number comes next Tuesday when the Consumer Price Index comes along, but now
and then the Produce Prices give a hint. But barely often enough to
keep me awake writing the details down. Next? War in the Pacific But only a war of words - for now: China and the Philippines are edging closer and closer to conflict over disputed territorial islands in the South China Sea. Too early in the day to be learning to spell the Huangyan Islands, so calling the area "them islands" may crop up here once in a while.
For cross-referencing, see Scarborough Shoal in Wikipedia. Hmmm... China wants it, Taiwan wants it, and the Philippines sort of has it. China wants a one-on-one bully session, while the Filipinos are holding out for international mediation.
Dolphin Watch Important strategic assessment from one of our best and brightest military analyst contributors who must remain un-named:
Only questions is which side of the Israel elections in September. Another source - outside Washington a good distance echoes the concern recently: "Might be time to check the batteries in the radiation meter..."
Although pending problems at Fukushima make that a redundant exercise.
Sun Watching: Pins and Needles An eye to the future along in here seems warranted, since whenever I get a number of different sources pointing in the same general direction around a story, I tend to watch closely.
The Sun's activity is one such story.
Starting from the beginning, I assume you know from reading/following Clif's work on the web bot project (New Report is due out (revised) on or before June 8). (See his notes about radiation headlines expected around July 10 though!).
In his work, the concept of sun disease has been around since 1997/1998...so I count that as data #1.
The second data point is the body of science that suggests that while the Sun builds to its peak of flare risk in early 2013 (just as we start the backside of cycle 24), here's where we were late Thursday:
Then there's the latest from 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl:
Might visit Patrick's website: linked here.
Need another point to ponder? Ed Dames - an exceptional remote viewer - and others in that arena - have looked into the future using that technology and come up with a "dramatic shift in global life" and seems to come from a "solar killshot."
Where all these notions/touches of the future come together is when you carefully take the time to read the "Critical National Infrastructures Report" of the US EMP Commission - a group which has looked in great depth into the electromagnetic pulse risks faced by the USA.
Yes, it is a long report, and yes it is 208 pages and 7.2 mB worth of file. But sometimes the future is hidden in plain sight. The risks we face as a society may seem highest from terrorism, but is it really?
I tend not to think so. As that chart of the S&P versus money supply clearly demonstrated earlier this week, we're on the backside of greatness globally as humans right now. The one unanswered question is whether compound interest, collapse of infrastructure from EMP (manmade or solar-driven), peak oil, a bio-terror pandemic later this year, or simply collapse from overpopulation shows up first.
It's a question which looms large with the weekend upon us again: Some people will no doubt toss in the towel, but others of us will get out and mow the yard anyway. Don't want the future to arrive at an unkempt yard.
More after this:
Coping: The "Chemistry" of Thought Viruses The first topic of thinkversation this morning has to do with how people select what to worry about. Worries are ugly little f***ers that beset and besiege everyone, big. rich, and powerful or small, broke, and weak. What separates people's outcomes seems - in large measure - to be a two-factor process: How to they decide what to be worried about and secondly, what then to do about it.
I wish we had more time because an exploration of my inbox turns up all kinds of interesting worries people have "glommed" onto. Let me show you what I mean with an example - a reader write on the problem of the ghost towns which are popping up not only in China, but turns out there's one being built in New Mexico as well:
The long-term contract by DHS for ammunition is a dandy example of what would be - in terms of mental memes - almost like a free molecule of an oxidizer (or reagent) in chemistry: It's a fact that's floating around in headspace, and just like in chemistry, it's waiting for something to glom onto.
I've see the ammunition story attach itself to theories about coming revolution in America, violence repression of people who don't agree with government policy if only peacefully, now the ghost town oddity - and lots of other things.
We need to be very careful when looking at such stories, however since just because a fit between stories could be constructed, it doesn't mean causation. The two are different kettles of fish.
When you do the math (on the ammo) it works out to something like 50-150 rounds per employee per year. Not sure how many rounds go into training, but I know if I were authoring training of security forces it would be a goodly number of rounds (500+) per employee in basic training and then 200+ rounds for annual qualification.
Because the "chemistry" of this story is gun/violence related, just as in chemistry, it tends to attach itself to stories which have a high level of certain kinds of content. The ammo aspect, for example, wouldn't attach well (react with, in chemistry terms) with something like aliens landing. On the other hand it reacts well with any story where there is an "authority question, earthly-based human subset."
Since the ghost towns are real - as are the training stories about Russian troops in Colorado near as we can figure - the ammo story has potential "reaction" with these meme "chemicals." Russians don't run .40 caliber? Next reaction, please.
Main thing to keep in mind while test-fitting news, looking for design patterns which can give deeper insights, is to be wide-ranging in thought, but slow to conclude causation. When you think you find something - like the Sun Disease story in the "hard news" section this morning, start lining up the data but be sure to sit back and ask "Is this just a "fit" or is it a "reaction" starting which demands my attention?
Words - in the information era - are a lot like chemicals were a hundred or two years ago: We know they cause reactions, but like chemistry in its infancy, we're still sorting out how the reactions work under different conditions. One thing's clear: The better of the "word chemists" tend to move up the human food chain.
Friday at the WuJo EVP & Ghost Hunting in Vicksburg Earlier this week, as Elaine and I were wandering the streets of Vicksburg, MS looking at the touristy things there, I happened to notice a sign in the window of the old building across the street from the Coca Cola Museum.
So how cool it that, we thought. A conversation with the building's tenant - Diane (I forgot her last name) resulted in some background about what the ghostly going-on were and then included appearances of former residents of the building, which back in the early days of Vicksburg was a hardware store on the lower level and a bordello on the upper floors and apparently there had been a fire there when had claimed the lives of some of "the girls" more than a hundred year ago.
I didn't know what I was expecting, but the idea of clay, sand, and other building materials being hauled into the site somehow just hadn't been a subject of much thinking on my part, but since there were no telephones, computers, or building departments, it made sense. Come to find out in some buildings (not this one) horse manure was added to the brick mixture because it improved the strength of the bricks. Who'da thought?
Best part of the tour, though, was the building's basement (above) where the construction included plenty of arches common to architecture of the period- the kind you can find elsewhere in America's past including the Pioneer Square Underground in Seattle.
Back when the building was constructed, there were all kinds of tunnels (most all now bricked-up) which connected the various buildings at the time of the Siege.
Still, no sign of the ghosts, but what we were told was that in addition to the usual apparitions and things disappearing/moving about, the building it a real hotspot for EVP - electronic voice phenomena.
Since we're likely to go back, I figure next time, I'll bring along some EVP recording tools and see if I can catch anything. While I know most people are skeptical of electronic voice phenomena, I've read enough in the subject area to be open-minded about it and figure that if there's anything to this "thinning of the veils" between different levels of reality that comes with 2012 events, what better time than this year or early next to try hunting voices?
Back Home I have to say, the return flight home Thursday morning was pleasantly boring. Elaine (read: blonde autopilot) flew about half of it. Landed just as afternoon clouds were starting to move in - which brought some showers in the area about 3 AM today. Gusty cross-winds from the southeast on runway 09, but nothing unmanageable.
Write when you break even: george@ure.net Of Interest to Readers: Be Sure to Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers, software, and outdoor gear. You're going to buy things on Amazon, so use this handy portal...
Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com New Battles for Internet Supremacy (Macon, GA) "What does a columnist's conference have to do with the future of banking, commerce, and how people live in the world today?" you could well be wondering to yourself. Well, as we'll discuss here this morning, the whole point of going to a professional conference is to add to one's personal recipe book; that composite model we each carry around in our heads that let's us figure on the fly how everything fits together which - in turn -allows us to spot opportunity. These, on occasion, can be used to great financial advantage, or at least to help steer clear of potential pitfalls. Interesting stuff which we'll get to after we parade a few early headlines. More for Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here It has been a while since we have discussed high beta investment systems, but with the market more or less stuck in "boring" maybe we should see if there's a way to play it, shall we? But not, of course, before tromping through some of the headlines that will push markets around next week, Still, it's the poking around looking for new and different ways to make money (or hold onto value so you've got a little something for a rainy day) which is fun. Think of it has entry-level forensic economics...
More for Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here
(Also) The "Flip-Side" of Virtual In Wednesday's report on the future of virtual reality glasses, a new technology which I think had pretty good potential to "pop" (standing 10-feet from a virtual 102" screen is pretty snazzy stuff) which qualifies it as one of our serial get-rich-slowly paths, which usually seems to take years instead of days, but that's another matter. What matters this morning is that as a friend (Oilman2) told me this week, there's a really horrible side of virtual and he's been kind enough to share details of how virtual is getting ready to start whacking jobs down in the oil patch. As usual, before we wade into the grim, we can recap the market and some of the major week ending headlines to see where that points...
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Safer Computing: Swearing Off Cookies It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.
To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.
I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy - and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:
Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual - Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.
Toss in a good bit of common sense (example: Don't open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet's actually a useful tool.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Do Tell Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks! ---- Last week's report is always here.
Thursday May 10, 2012 Dawn of Mysterious Thursday (Vicksburg, MS) By the time you open your coffee and pour your computer, we should be heading back from our travels on what is turning into something of a "mysterious Tuesday" not so much because of what has happened so far, but because of all the events that seem to be in coincidence or prequel mode.
As we click into the pile of overnight headlines, it's striking to see how much is plain old "odd." Just as in wandering the floor of the casino here I was struck by how luck ruins in waves, so too the headlines have that kind of feel to them.
Some examples? Of course.
Several readers have commented on the untimely death of a (the) key witness to the death of webegade publisher Andrew Brietbart. Here's an example:
"I wrote about the breitbart thing, a while ago....and a [psychic] reference to "protamine".
What is interesting is that in the article :
The gist of it is that Breitbart turned vivid red while normally heart attack victims turns blue according to the report.
With the body count and missing persons adding up, I am certain he was silenced by using some agent that was based upon the actions of this protamine substance."
One story does not make an outbreak of coincidences, but here's another. Remember those mystery cities in China? They made the email rounds with WTF notes a year or two back including links to Google Earth. And they have been a hot topic by writers on the net.
What gets this into the strange/conicdence/WTF category is that update in the UK Telegraph this week on the plans to build guess what? Yep - a 35,000 resident ghost city in New Mexico.
This one is a genuine stumper: Oh, sure, these Chinese cities were explained as planned expansions gone bad....while the American counterpart town (only one so far) is being called a science project. But since we already have lots of near-empty towns (Detroit comes to mind - all the freakin' square footage in downtown buildings you'd ever want and available for pennies) we have to wonder "What would motivate governments on opposite sides of the planet to build large cities which will be empty?"
As you probably know, Clif's got a "Shape of Things to Come" report due out around May 22, and I'm looking forward to finding out if anything which might be a bit with this curious string of construction [to what end] has turned up in the data? If anything, of course, but there's a lot of odd/quirky loose ends piling up on the editor's desktop.
Right next to them is a note from our Indonesia Bureau Chief on the Sukhoi airliner crash:
"Well, the Sukhoi hit a mountain, not the ocean, at least according to the latest. This ordeal is a major blow to Sukhoi, since (like Boeing) they’ve been hinging their survival on sales on the new Superjet 100. This demo flight was supposed to cap the sale of a number of the craft, though all the buyers went down with the plane. It remains to be seen if this will be viewed as “pre-disastered” a la Garp, or if all bets are now off the table. More to come… "
Judging by the terrain pictured, sure looks initially like pilot error. When we get word on crash time weather conditions and time we'll have more sense of things.
Slide Before Fall? Our recent questions about markets "Are French Dips Contagious?" and "Deteriorating Quickly?" should have been a clue as to our market expectations this week, although earlier it looked like the slide has been stemmed momentarily and a brief bounce could be in order at some point (before completing the short term decline to the S&P 1,325 area if various calculations are correct). Note that since our first warning in the Monday preopen the Dow has been drifting downward.
Since what goes down comes up, we expect a decent rally at the open and maybe for the day. One more good down may finish off this correction, though, figures Robin Landry, who's looking for a rally into summer once sell in May and go away season runs its course with cycles down until the middle of next week or so.
The headlines going into this morning include balance of trade figures:
"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $186.8 billion and imports of $238.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $51.8 billion, up from $45.4 billion in February, revised. March exports were $5.3 billion more than February exports of $181.5 billion. March imports were $11.7 billion more than February imports of $226.9 billion.
In March, the goods deficit increased $6.5 billion from February to $67.6 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion from February to $15.8 billion. Exports of goods increased $4.7 billion to $132.7 billion, and imports of goods increased $11.3 billion to $200.3 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $54.1 billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $38.3 billion.
The goods and services deficit increased $5.8 billion from March 2011 to March 2012. Exports were up $12.8 billion, or 7.3 percent, and imports were up $18.5 billion, or 8.4 percent."
And then we have the weekly unemployment number, though remember these can be misleading because they include plenty of seasonal workers and mininum wages, but any port in a storm, I suppose:
"In the week ending May 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 367,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 379,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average of 384,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending April 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.6 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 28 was 3,229,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,290,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,290,000, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,300,500. "
How you want to read this graph is a kind of two-edged sword:
Reason for the edges? Soaring trade would be higher foreign debt, but that might mean people are getting freer in the spending ways....like I said: mixed messages about in economics, politics, blah, blah, yada, yada...
Which leaves only watching how the collapse of Europe's supergovernment/NWO test tube baby to watch.
Well, the is one other thing. Since we all know that what the completion of the NWO will require will be a global money system, notice that the Fed has given the green light to Chinese banking giant ICBC to take on a US bank. Like we're fond of saying: Where there's a will, there's lawyers.
Payback's a Bitch Dept. While most recent attention of Maricopa County Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio has been on his "truth squad" which has come up with numerous (unanswered) legal questions about the office-holder-in-place, we note the timing of a planned Justice Department lawsuit designed to attack Arpaio's handling of the illegal immigration, drug smuggling, home-invasion, murder problems along the Arizona Sieve.
Some mistakenly call it a border, but that implies boundaries, which would imply drugs and drug money not pouring into Arizona and thence American politics, which is a bad impression anyone often-held by those who haven't Googled the term "narco dollars".
Conservatives will no doubt point out the irony around the timing of this when the Justice Department hasn't been particularly forthcoming on Fast & Furious (Weren't there questions for the State Department, too?) and while AG Eric Holder et all seem unbothered that the head of financial rip&banko MF Global is still at large (and by some reports bundling democorp campaign dough).
Nothing out of the ordinary, though. What's the old saying? He who pays the piper calls the tune... Ya'll over in Arizona didn't pay enough and payback's a what?
March to the Police State South Floridians in Coconut Grove may be wondering how come simulated gunfire doesn't make "simulated noise?" This as local media are pimping more urban terrorism drills as what InfoWars calls the conditioning of people to accept martial law.
See Spots Run Latest from Patrick Geryl who has been watching the sun and sunspots in anticipation of his quake window...
"Hi George,
You published my warning for May 15 on April 9: http://www.urbansurvival.com/blog/?p=5273
Here you find the video i made about it (published April 25)... There are a lot more data in it... Quadrupole Sun : Will the Poles of the Sun Switch Spectacularly on May 13 -- 14 --15, 2012?
This is the update for my predicted period May 5 – 9 (see the video):
M1.8 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 14:08 UTC - Sunspot 1476 M4.7 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 12:32 UTC - Sunspot 1476 M1.4 Flare on 5/08/2012 @ 13:08 UTC - Sunspot 1476 M1.9 Flare on 5/07/2012 @ 14:31 UTC - Sunspot 1470-1471 combined - LDE lasting 2hrs M1.3 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 17:47 UTC - Sunspot 1476 M1.1 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 01:18 UTC - Sunspot 1476 M1.3 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 23:01 UTC - Sunspot 1476 M1.4 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 13:23 UTC - Sunspot 1476
Comparison: All the flares from April:
April 2012 M1.0 Flare on 4/27/2012 @ 08:24 UTC - Sunspot 1466 M1.7 Flare on 4/16/2012 @ 17:40 UTC - Sunspot 1461
So quite spot on....! And here is the latest....
Region 11476 [N10E19] has magnetic delta structures in 3 penumbrae with the major delta located in the southern part of the huge leading penumbra. Major flares, even X class flares, are possible.
Flares: M4.7/1N at 12:32, M1.8/1B at 14:08, C9.1 at 20:52, M4.1 at 21:05 UTC. A major flare, M5.7, was recorded at 04:18 UTC on May 10.
Patrick Geryl"
And just to be current through this morning:
:Issued: 2012 May 10 0847 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# NOAA AR 11476 is growing again in size and number of spots. Since yesterday noon, several major M-flares have been released. There is no indication that his will stop soon, at the contrary, chances for X-class flaring are becoming substantial. As the active region is approaching central meridian, the chances for associated particle storms are also increasing.
So yes, as soon as we are back home this morning, the airplane gets fueled up, put back in its grounded metal hangar, and we will delve into that which waits from this trip and catch up on subscriber remails and such...
Coping: The Wujo of Chiang Mai, Thailand This is dandy! I discovered it this morning in my email, since I haven't really used this computer since our last trip (Thanksgiving'ish) last year. for some reason it popped up today when I was going through the I-Ching inbox...
"Hello George,
Most days my wife heads down the soi (that’s Thai for ‘street’) to grab me a strong takeaway coffee from the nearby Wawee Coffee Shop (a local northern Thai franchise). She takes our 14 month old son with her – he enjoys pushing his pram (that’s Australian / English for ‘stroller’) and occasionally sitting in it too. I’m usually at home, working away (I am fortunate enough to work from home) and praying that the crushing caffeine withdrawal headaches don’t erupt before she gets back with the goods, so to speak!
Anyway, this morning she came home from the walk rather freaked out. She typed up her experience during today and asked me to forward it on to you (she knows I’m a regular reader and I’ve mentioned some Wujo to her previously). I’ve pasted her text below. Best to you, {reader].
Wujo Occurrence Chiang Mai, Thailand 16 November 2011
This morning between 8:00am and 8:30am I was out on a morning walk with my 14 month old son. As we turned onto Nimmanhaemin Rd, Soi 9 (‘Soi’ is Thai for street), I stopped to put my son in his pram (stroller). We continued walking towards Wawee Coffee Shop in the direction of Doi Suthep mountain. I immediately noticed the Moon – shining amazingly bright for this time of morning and so big, it seemed so close to Earth. I couldn’t take my eyes off it as I walked up the road.
As we got closer to Wawee and a residential gate, where a small black dog lives (that my son loves and usually says hello to), a young couple (aged in their 20s, possibly early 30s) appeared riding on a bicycle, at speed, seemingly out of nowhere. The young man was pedaling while the girl sat side saddle on the back seat. They were Asian (not necessarily Thai) looking, with dark complexions.
The first thing that struck me as strange was their clothing – it looked very traditional and in an old style. The young man was wearing cream coloured flowing pants, a cream coloured long sleeved shirt and a maroon wrap around his shoulders. The young woman on the back of the bicycle had a blue floral shawl draped over her head. Muslim type attire came to mind. But the shawl was just resting over her head, like a classic Mary (Mother of Jesus) representation, not pinned down or seemingly attached in any way.
I thought their clothing was odd – as not many people get around dressed like this. Plus the traditional hill tribe clothing of this region looks different, so it wasn’t anything hill tribe.
The next thing I noticed were their radiant smiles – particularly the man, who was beaming. They were extremely happy smiles – not holding back in any way, big, genuine and free. They were both looking and smiling at my son in his pram.
As they passed me I stared at the young woman on the back of the bicycle, admiring her head shawl and thinking how strange it was that her shawl wasn’t blowing off with the speed of the bicycle. The shawl seemed to not even move or flutter about at all.
They looked so different to anyone I’d seen on the streets during the 8 years I’ve lived here. They struck me as not of this time.
The last thing I saw was the young woman’s face and shawl passing my field of vision as they cycled past. I walked a few more steps and had a strange feeling, I wanted to look at her shawl again – it was a beautiful floral pattern. I looked back behind me. The young couple was nowhere to be seen.
As Soi 9 is such a long road I would still have been able to see them cycling away.
Completely freaked out, I walked at a rapid pace back down the Soi to see if they had stopped by the side of the road, behind a parked 4wd or cycled into the nearby carpark – nothing.
No sign of them whatsoever. All of the nearby residential / house gates were closed and they are big metal gates that need to be opened (noisily and with some effort) before going inside. They had just vanished.
I might note that as the young couple approached and passed me, there wasn’t any noise coming from the bicycle, or either of them. In fact, all sounds seemed to disappear. I felt really strange and that I had experienced something way out of the ordinary. I looked at the Moon as my son and I continued to Wawee Coffee Shop and wondered if it (i.e. the Moon) had something to do with this strange phenomena."
Yep, this is one for the books - and not out of keeping with our various reports of shape-shifting cars and so forth, either. Most strange, but what the hell isn't these days? Remember in Clif's work, we would start seeing/hearing of more cases oif surreality and we move along.
And, speaking of WuJo, Elaine and I went on a tour of a haunted bxuilding in downtown Vicksburg on this trip, so drop by tomorrow for some pictures from there...
Wujo Report #2: Bermuda Triangle Incident? This one is pretty good, too:
"George, I have always read your Wujo reports with great interest. I've had two incidents in my life that I could describe as wujo events. After the truck incident this last Sunday, I thought I would share them with you.
This happened to me Sunday afternoon [5/6/12] returning home to OKC on I-40 East bound. I was about a mile or two west of the 44 South junction and was behind a semi. The truck had Heldal in large green letters on the back of the trailer and the number 8171 in large blue letters on the left bottom corner.
As we came up to the South bound exit, he gracefully changed left across three lanes of traffic to enter the 44 north bound lane. I entered the south bound lane on the right and started to merge onto 44 South bound.
Another rig was coming up fast, so I yielded to him and came in behind him. And lo and behold, accross the back of the trailer we Heldal in large green letters and the number 8171 in blue letters in the left bottom corner.
It was the same rig.
I have no idea how he could turned around and re-entered the south bound lane, since the next exit from where he entered the north lane was another two miles ahead. I am sorely confused at this "crossing" of paths. Any thoughts?
The other incident involved me and my trusty lil' C172 SkyHawk and an aborted trip to Bimini.
I took off from Kissimmiee, Fl and landed in Ft. Lauderdale Executive to refuel (I am paranoid that way, plus I didn't want to pay island prices for 100LL), checked the weather, drained the petcock and headed off east over the Atlantic. The Sun was directly above and water and the sky the exact same shade of blue, like flying into a blue bowl. Checked the instruments and everything looked good and I settled into what should have been an uneventful flight at 9,000' MSL.
About 15 minutes after getting feet wet, I noticed that the Gyro was dead. A quick cross check and the entire cockpit was dead. Electric was still on and the radio still worked, but none of the navigation was working including the altimeter and the VSI. I radioed FXE and informed them that I was instrument out and was returning. I did a 180 by the whiskey compass and descended until I could see the waves. I returned to FXE and landed, had them check out the old bird, and they found nothing wrong.
I decided to return to Kissimmee and the flight back was unremarkable, except that all my instruments were working fine. Got home and spent the evening hanging out with dear old Jack. Never had another problem with plane."
As I collect reports like this, it becomes clear that some people seem to experience many of these kinds of events, while others have none at all. Just one more bit of "out of placeness" on the truck - which at a design pattern level seems related to the Thailand bike story. The airplaine story? There was that missing Navy training flight and the disappearance of the search plane...roughly same neighborhood.
So is the Bermuda Triangle real? Bet'cha we can take an edjumacated guess at what this reader's answer would be...
Urban Trends: Mail Theft This was eye-opening: "George --
You must have some pretty well-heeled readers if they don't think your economic forecasting is accurate. I know I live in a city that routinely makes the lists of "The Worst of ---", but I don't think we're *that* atypical. We have stores closing all over and buildings staying empty. Where Border's was is still empty, for instance. There was a returned vet pan-handling in Trader Joe's parking lot a month ago. I felt like asking him if this was what he risked his life for, but thought that would be "salt in the wound".
Don't those readers do their own shopping?
The city closed one park because thieves had stolen the copper wiring for the lighting. Stealing copper has been an on-going problem here for many years. Foreclosures are as bad here as anywhere else, maybe worse. Nobody near them had any such trouble? Or do those readers not read or hear of their city, county and school budgets getting cut/slashed?
And then there's what I've gotten tangled up in -- mail theft. My postal carrier said it's gotten so bad, they've been asked to report how much got stolen on their routes! I set two checks out for pick-up. Unfortunately, thieves got there first. Fortunately, they left the "evidence" in another box when they stole her money orders. My carrier brought my two bills to me as soon as he found them and I immediately had stop payment orders put on the checks. But they changed the number on one check.
So, I had to clear that up with the grocery store that got taken. This was back in Feb. Yesterday, I got another dunning notice from that store. It seems they are still using my name and address, but fortunately (for me) not my ID and a different bank, so the store knows it wasn't me -- I guess the machine, or whatever, sends the duns without checking with people first.
Anyway, I hadn't reported it to the police, but since they're still involving me, that's where I'm going this morning. For me, it's just been a hassle, but for the banks and stores involved, it's evidently getting serious.
In fact, your forecasts may be too rosy for a good many people.
On another topic, I enjoyed your notes on reading -- sent them on to my sister who also reads constantly -- but books, not these gadgets. But then I'm 80 and she's close to that, so a different mind set from you young-uns. "
Personally, as I'm aging, I'm in the greatest race in life: Want to see if I can get my age to 100 or my IQ to 100...
A Fortune Savory, this:
"George, I chuckled at your column today whereby readers took you to task for your various typos, and thought I'd toss something out for deciphering. I got this in a fortune cookie last night - Hubby calls it "Chinglish":
"You own the most squander asset in the world-time."
Really?? Can't say I'm quite sure how to take this yet. ;-p"
Owning time is like owning weather. It's there but often difficult to control. Wednesday May 9, 2012 The Wednesday Reader Note First up, a sample of what's up at Peoplenomics this morning....
When to Go Long? (Vicksburg, MS) We have two major scenarios to ponder this morning about where markets will go over the next year, or so. Not that we care much about them per se, but our nest egg protection team (NEPT) has been eyeing things including the recent weakness in gold which is under the $1,600 level. So this morning's project here on the banks of the Mississippi is to sort through some of the confusing signs and see if there are some common sense moves available. After we check out the overnight news flow for recent hints, that is.....and some dark thoughts on the chances of a Second Civil War in the US. More for Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here
This last part is based on some thinking I was doing out at the Civil War Memorial here. The troubling part (based on how strongly many Southern States feel about gay rights) is that all major Depressions end in wars and although the coupling is often in the 10-20 year period, since we entered the Second Depression by my reckoning in 2000 as the Internet Bubble burst, who's to say that increasing tensions between the North and South couldn't be reignited?
Seems like it's in play now, but only if you look through very long-term eyes. Besides wondering how Betty Crocker would bake that cake, we also look into the short term market outlook which judging by the futures might best be met with a tight seatbelt while wearing a fresh Adult Depends.
Assuming you're up to date on posts at the Strategic Living site, which includes The Questionable Future of Reading and Books Beyond the Collapse: Quest for a Future Framework Time to Bug Out of America? Working to Death about the only thing left it to point you over to Clif's site where plans are in the works for another data run which will follow much tweaking and adjusting of the rickety time machine. New web bot run details over this-a-way.
Going down? Expected due date is May 22...but as to his question about whether the HFT crowd is feeling sharp pointy things midway between navel and knees - and halfway around - see the Adult Depends recommandation above or just wait fors the opening bell.
The future just got here again.
Tuesday May 8, 2012 Are French Dips Contagious (Vicksburg, MS) It's a tragedy of the human condition that our "tribe" of peeps on the rock is around 7-billion because it has reduced us all to numbers, and this in turn has caused an infatuation with that which "counts." This morning there are several numbers to consider, such as 3,000 which is the level in the French CAC40 index - a kind of French Dow - which is coming into view since their "let's go back to free lunches" presidential election.
The same could be said for the S&P 500, which has its own load of troubles to deal with staying above 1,340. Sure, it closed Monday 30-points above that level, but the futures were down another 7, or so, when I looked, and we're in no particular hurry to get to the edge of the cliff, since respectable crashes trade sideways and down normally for either 35/37 days or 55 days from lower-high spots. So sometime this summer is an interesting bet.
Dow 13,000 on the other hand could fall today, and if it does, sometimes these who number spots (ending in a couple of zeros) can be important psychological markers to keep in mind.
Still there's the mood of optimism on both sides of the political aisle that hint January/Febhruary of 2013 (or even December 21, lol) would make a good crash period, since republicorps are confident they'll win in November, but already Obama II supporters are speaking out.
Half the country will be sorely disappointed by the election and that's likely to ripple into investment thinking and the willingness to take on debt. For now, we're up to our elbows in true believers, so one more leg up is possible.
An example of a number that provides a hopeful sign is that consumer spending was increasing at an annual rate of 10.25% in the report out Monday afternoon. If you had just one number to use in forecasting this might well be it.
Of course, the M2 money supply (up 9.8% in the past year) couldn't have had something to do with the increase in consumker debt could it? Back out paper money inflation and suddenly that's a 1% growth case and what has population growth been? Unsavory questions best left for blessed and annointed academics with letters beyond MBA after their names.
If you read the report deeply, (don't bother, have a life instead) you'll find that there hasn't been any increase in consumer debt (they call it "credit" because they own us, not the other way around like it should be) hasn't increased any since 2007. In fact, we're not doing badly as a nation at this "being thrifty" stuff. Being pretty much broke is an incentive, I'll grant you that.
If you want to find the real debt pig, the consumer debt portion held by the federal government has gone from $90.8 billion (student loans and such) in 2007 up to an astounding $460.2 billion in this latest report.
The fact is, when you compare hows Q1 2012 is doing compared with Q4 2012 on the consumer spending/debt front, you find growth has been a whopping 0.06%.
The case for the double-dip is plain as day. The growth is in government, pure and simple (highlighted) in Ure's spreadsheet du jour:
That's how I arrive as this morning's headline, noting the only grtowth has been in government loans (student loans and such): Are French Dips contagious? Not that Greece doesn't get some blame, since there are rumors they will tube the bailout deal.
Familiar Question The Daily Beasthas a report on how the DoJ has failed to bring justice to Wall Street's criminal clown class. But, what's important, here? Raising dough or going to jail? Not to worry that it leaves the working class wondering if justice is spelled just us.
Social Marker: Kidnapping One of the interesting things to note during economic downturns is the return of kidnappings as a way for bad people to make good money, or so goes their (twisted up) thinking. Take the case up in Tennessee right now, for example.
Probably the most famous kidnapping of the Great Depression was the Lindberg case, back in '32.
A little more recently, you may be old enough to remember the big headline kidnapping case that happened just ahead of the big Mini-Crash in 1987 - the Carlina Renae White Case. August ahead of the October market face-plant.
Thinking goes (among non-quants, anyway) that there's something about people's behavior that changes when times are bad. Kidnappings in Sicily went up and the economy went down there, too. And Sendero in Peru...thinks to keep track of. Poor economy? High kidnapping risk.
Ahead of the Curve Terrible headline, but with a report that obesity could affect 42% of Americans by 2030, I'm trying like hell to get to the other side of the cohort. The correlation between CR (calorie restricted) diets and longevity keeps popping up, but what the hell fun is that?
Unintended Consequences Speaking of calories and what all, thye Boston Herald has a tasty report on how state junk food for kids laws may end school bake sales.
We the ungovernable, led by the unthinkable....
The Next "Big Thing"? The state of Nevada has issued Google a license to test the first (in ther wild) driverless cars.
Sounds great - at first. But pardon me for asking: Isn't this just one more thing to hack?
Coping: Life on the Buggassippi (Vicksburg, MS) Rather than engage my brain, which - like the airplane's gyro system - takes a good while to spin down, while we sit it out a nasty string of thunderstorms here, I thought we could go through the mail bag together since readers are always sending in interesting emails, even when I'm on the road. I fread them all, too, even if I don't respond to each one (except the critics of course, which are instantly trashed). Americans collectively have a lot of information which is otherwise overlooked by the MainStreamMedia. Yet, it is precisely the overlooked stuff that "seasons" life; everywhere from sugar to pepper and through the whole spice rack. # The title of this morning's notes comes from the fact that Mississippi may have enough bugs around to deserve renaming of the whole state. Earlier this week while outrunning foul weather on our way west, I was surprised to pick up bugs splatting on the windshield at 3,000 feet. No big deal, a fellow pilot told me. "We regularly get them up at 7,500 feet, or so." What the hell are they thinking? # I'm very dilligent about checking NOTAMS (Notices to Airmen) lest we flight into a TFR area (temporary flight restrictions) where (like up in Chicago around NATO-time) airplanes can be shot down for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. # A little higher up, a reader has been creating YouTube videos of various celestial transits coming up and offers this:
I'm not sure what to make of it. But, since controlled airspace only goes up to 60,000 feet (whereafter it becomes a DoD problem) there will not be any notices to airmen about things out of place this year. # Several readers picked up on our "What are headline writers thinking (if at all)?" from yesterday's column. One gem deserving particular praise exclaimed "Bridges help people cross rivers." No sh*t, Sherlock. # Then there was the reader who looked at our national debt and our growing indenture to China which got him to thinking:
"Factoid - By the end of this decade the interest payments on the American debt to China will be enough to finance the Chinese army. "
No worries, though. Near as I can tell from a close read of the most recent five thousand years of human history, Life on Earth has been a constant struggle to select the best possible debt master. Whether that's some dude in a Ra suit on a pyramid, Gudo and Luigi from the local loan shark, Ben and the Printers, or just the spouse.
The famous author that wrote "No man is an island" stated it wrong. Revising it to "No man is an economy" clears that up. # Still, while pondering why we're in the Mississippi lowlands during an earthquake window (variously from May 8-10) with New Madrid just up-river, we remain pretty sure the world will end for each of us....someday no matter what. The process is called aging.
In the meantime another reader suggests we go look at the "Compendium of Useful Information" which may help reg'lar peeps muddle through peak oil, peak food, peak global insanity, and so forth.
I was going to write up the details of my study on whether stored booze works best in plastic half gallon jugs or glass bottles. Unfortunately, my samples keep disappearing; invariably gone in a few weeks. # Which may account for reader questions like this one, refering to the embedded IQ/associative skills test in Monday's column in our discussion of the Politicallly Correct Through Police: "So in order to avoid being targeted as a racist myself, I've resolved to refer in the future to egg clears. Of course this was all baked in the cake with the decline in the use of White-Out. And in a nod to the South we'll just refer to optically-challenged peas."
"Usually, I'm able to work my way through your amply offered typos to parse the point you may be trying to make, but this time I'm stumped."
I courteously sent back: "Do egg whites and black-eyed peas help?"
My miss. # Does government have something up it's sleeve? Here's a reader who thinks so:
"George, as you know, but for the make-believe 206,000 jobs imagined into existence by the BLS’ CES Net Birth/Death Model, the economy would have had a loss of 91,000 jobs in April. The jobs numbers have collapsed, but the Gov’t is lying about them!!"
Listen here: Lying is a pretty strong term. I would suggest use of more gentle words. I'm trying to avoid descriptive verbs like "bullshit" and "utter crap" because its possible "incompletely stated" would be less likely deemed seditious; although Gitmo's climate is agreeable and it is a low income tourism option. # When you think about it, government's got a very difficult task: How would you keep 313-million well-armed poor people under control?
Or to shift it a bit: Faced with a country full of people like you and me, wouldn't you do a little "fact control" to plan your exit to...of, Paraguay, for example: It's that where the former presidents are buying land?
Of course it would be paranoid to think anyone had a heads-up on Fukushima or whatever. Still, if the facts fit, write 'em. # A number of readers sent in corrections to Monday's column which got the UK market wrong:
"Hiya hope you don't mind me saying but we were on a national bank holiday today...the stock market was closed. It was1.93% down on Friday and remained there today due to no trading taking place. "
Ooops. So sorry. Who knew? I need to remind you that I have a serious visual impairment I don't often mention (and I failed to confess to it on my flight medical, too). This visual glitch relates to blood levels of caffeine, peripheral vision, and neuron firing-times. You may experience it, too. Based on personal experiments it occurs most often from a few hours before sunrise right and continues right on through nap time. # I'm writing the column in shorter snips now, since brevity is the new trend in writing as I posted over at the Strategic-Living site this week.
"Hi Mr. Ure, didn't read it "The Questionable Future of Reading and Books" that is. Not that it's a book mind you. But, it is just the same........a little fun. Not reading it and all, Wonder how many other readers didn't read it? Oh! BTW, did you hear (read) Warren buffet is up for buying more newspapers. (cymbals sound here) Smiley face. "
I can count the number of times I have disagrees with the WB on two fingers: One is his constant dismissing of gold. The other is in buying up newspapers which (what I got from the conference) are still under attack from the alternative media (and we're winning).
Still, as tribute to the stocktown sage, I'm offering a public promise not to bid against him in any newspaper acquisitions he's got planned. My lack of unallocated capital is purely coincidental.
Speaking of famous people... # Somewhere this morning I should apologize for referring to Valimir Putin's taking of the "presidential oaf" in Russia, before a crack team of Spetsnaz troops kicks in the door at our hotel here in Mississippi.
Normally, we wouldn't worry about such things, home of the brave and all, but since we're training Russian troops up in Colorado (whoever the f*** is the genius behind that?) they're close by and may not have the highly refined sense of humor that Americans have - which is underscored by who we put in office.
On the other hand, a discussion with the Spetsnaz might be interesting: I hear they too have problems with their long term vodka storage research.
"Not so much as news tip... you probably used "bowl of borscht" remark to make a joke. But just in case - Rusiian Presidents take their oath of office with hand on Russian Constitution before a Chairman of Constitutional Court, who declares him President after oath is taken."
I sit corrected.
No worries, though: I remain unqualified to hold office in America (which blows my hand on the cheeseburger swearing-in ceremony idea) since I have a birth certificate, no friends that own casinos, I'm not from Utah, I've never been arrested for anything, and I don't go begging for money. Despite the shortcomiong, a fellow in Sarasota thinks I may serve some useful purpose:
"George, I think it's about time for you to announce your Vice Presidential aspirations to the Ron Paul camp so we officially get back on track! Wasn't asking! Know you'll say no, but we need ya man! You get a better plane too! There's some wujo for ya! Cliff High. Sec/State."
Actually, I'd say "Yes!" in a New York second.
Just in case someone asks, I'm practicing up on small mistatements: No "chicken in every pot" stuff. Just little things to warm up on. "Yes dear" and "anything you say honey."
Way I figure it: Little lies lead to big lies and big lies lead to office. A man's gotta start somewhere.... # I can't think of a better starting point that the buffet downstairs here at the hotel and then a tour of the Civil War Memorial and - if time allows, a tour of the Coca Cola Museum here.
Few people realize that Vicksburg, MS is where Coke was first bottled. And, since we're hemmed in by weather until early Thursday, we should be able to get a good sense of the place.
One thing I have noticed about the local economy: The "High Roller" part of the casinos has been conspiculously empty. Go ahead: Look surprised.
Monday May 7, 2012 Deteriorating Quickly? (Vicksburg, MS) A week or so back, when the market was in the throes of shaking off an intermediate decline and was poking its head up over the Dow 13,200 area - and looking for a time like it might even take out 13,300, Ures truly was saying "You know, Landry's work suggests that market might drop down to the S&P 1,340 level, with almost even odds of 1,300 and a chance of 1,295.
As you'd expect, the email inbox quickly filled with "Ure so fullacrap..." and other derision that I didn't even bother to respond to most, but I made a note to mention once the market gets into a position where things can deteriorate quickly - like the preopen numbers this morning - that I ought to mention something about it.
Still, there will be people saying "Even a busted clock is right twice a day..." and I'd quickly have to agree. Besides, wrote another "You've been claiming we're in a Second Depression since 2001: So where is it wise guy?"
Funny you should ask.
A couple of weeks ago, in a Peoplenomics column, I explained how the fuggly truth of America's troubles are hidden in plain sight.
While it is true the Dow (and other indices) are well up from their 2009 lows, and yes, the Housing Bubble was real (at least sorta real) there was always the nag in the back of my mind that the reality of the markets was somehow hidden. IF gold and silver were going to do an inflationary moonshot, why haven't they launched yet? If what the Fed is doing is so bad, how come the jobs numbers like the ones out on Friday haven't collapsed yet? And this list of questions goes on.
Yet in that Peoplenomics report I presented what I think is a compelling chart that goes well beyond the inflation corrected Dow which gained notoriety a few years back. It's the Dow corrected for the M2 money supply and going back into history it looks like this.
Oh, and why you look at this chart, consider this is how America feels. Even if you have a job and a home, to borrow a Bill Moyers' title, this is The American Experience, at least financially and emotionally:
This is probably how - on average - American's are "feeling" the economic winds.
The nice thing about this way of looking at the economy is that I think it pretty well sweeps away misconceptions about the experiential level of finance because it shows you not only how purchasing power of the Dow and S&P have declined over time: The Dow needs to be almost 16,000 right now, today, in order to be at comparable levels of purchasing power from early 2000, it also shows where the money's gone. Concentration of wealth lives here.
But more than correcting for inflation at the visible layer, this view also reveals what happened to the "other inflation" - the money going into what my friend Howard Hill called "dead pools" of capital. It also relates quite directly to the issues of jobjacking, foreign debt, and all the rest of it.
It's not a pretty picture.
So kinda keep an eye on markets in this particular "Sell in May and go away" since there are many ways of viewing the markets which have "flipped." Landry's got a question whether the 1,300 S&P layer will hold, and our Fractal Economist figures disaster is dead ahead.
While it may be true that "printing money" will work for a while, it's also axiomatic that where it's all going is no mystery, once you put a little thought into it.
Just as my friend the Forensic Economist prof once said "There's never any mystery where money goes...provided you look for it."
I'm, offering for your consideration this morning the idea that a little back of the envelope scratching like this - looking at stock indices, normed for money supply - will reveal more about the average experience of the economy than all the "offishul" (sic) reports out there.
Unfortunately this still leaves two important questions. The first is "How far is down?" We'll track along the way.
The other is "Why do they call it common sense, when it isn't?"
Never seen a Global Collapsity before, but a fair question on mornings like this is will it be Developing Quickly?
Are the French Crazy? (Part 2) The departure of the Sarkozy regime in Paris is imminent with the election of socialist Francois Hollande this weekend.
To be sure, socialism makes a marked upturn when things get bad enough - and the cry for public spending and social supports becomes a public clamor. The problem is that socialists do tend to deliver on some of their promises, while on the back-end killing the purchasing power of dollars.
On thing's for sure: While the French market was flattish in the wake of results, the Unemployed Kingdom was down almost 2% when I looked. Are the powersthatwere on Fleet Street losing it? Oh...and will their Colony here soon follow? Stay tuned for the next exciting chapter as......yada yada....
Oh: yes the French are crazy. But, have we looked in the mirror, lately?
War Calendar The Israel source Debka reports that that the French election outcome has weakened the Western alliance against Iran. Couple that with the reports that Israel may hold elections in September and is that the far end of the war window?
El TARP The Wall St. Journal reports (with a straight type) this morning that "Spain may pump public money into banks." Lacking enough rat holes? We're waiting for next years running of the investors through the streets of Barcelona.
Presidential Oaf The report here that Russian President Vlad Putin ("he's baaaack....") has been sworn in for a rerun has caused a serious question to come to mind:
American Presidents are sworn in with a hand on a bible...right? So, what (if anything) did Putin use? Hmmm...hand in bowl borscht? Seriously (or sort of...) these are the mechanics of ceremony people wonder about I think.
If I ever make it to the presidency, I'll have one hand on a cheeseburger myself.
Political Correctness Dept. There's a report in the UK Sun (so it must be true, eh?) that Scotland Yard is banning the use of the word "blacklist."
So in order to avoid being targeted as a racist myself, I've resolved to refer in the future to egg clears. Of course this was all baked in the cake with the decline in the use of White-Out. And in a nod to the South we'll just refer to optically-challenged peas.
What are the Headline Writers Thinking? Here's one that appears in the Washington Online editions this morning: "Biden comfortable with same-sex marriage." He is? Uhhh...
What a Novel Idea... Murder at the Kentucky Derby this weekend sounds like something out of a crime novel. I wonder if J.A. Jance has seen it? Maybe set it back at the old Longacres race track back in the day...
Tomorrow is Anyting Can Happen Day Be sure and drop by tomorrow about 9 AM Eastern, 8 AM Central, or whenever you get up out West as we'll review the meaning and impact of the Fed's Consumer Debt report. It promises to once again try to convince us all that we can spend our way into wealth... We're not sure how that works but our study of Spanish and Mandarin is back on the project list.
More after this...
Coping: Left Behind by the Information Age Apparently I'm not the only one who is eyeing the QR Code frenzy (disease) with some suspicion. A reader sends this:
"In the bay area your QR disease is beyond rampant because little code squares are showing up on everything save for sheets of toilet paper and I mean the sheets you wipe with not the wrapping it comes in."
I'm afraid of some of the implications here: One is that I'm turning into an infotard by not spending money I don't have on a phone to figure out how to program my TV which still has a perfectly find remote that works without a phone.
What's more important, though, is that QR (as I'm been ruminating on this) gives phone companies even more power than they should have ever had in the first place.
I mean think about this: Download an ap to run your TV (and manage your bank accounts and whatever) and if you don't pay your phone bill, what's going to happen? You can't call anyone to help...you're not able to get into your accounts, and you can even pop a beer and watch Idol reruns because the TV won't work and you can't buy batteries...
Holy smokes! The phone companies still run everything! What was the old bumper sticker? "We don't care, we don't have to?"
I'll just keep my cheapskate "throw-down" phone. The odds of me getting single-platform-dependent are "remote."
Coping: Conference Follow-Up (Vicksburg, MS) We've decided to hang our for a few days here in Mississippi in order to decompress from the hectic schedule over the past week and do something other than look at a clock for somewhere to be. Oh, and the weather is a tad on unfavorable side for visual (non instrument) flying on the way home.
The NSNC Conference was a huge success. Ed Grisamore (and his most helpful wife) did a splendid hosting job. I came out of the conference with a whole bunch of new thoughts (one of which was in Peoplenomics Saturday) as well as a broader view of where things. You might want to read "The Questionable Future of Reading and Books" over at the Strategic-Living site.
As to some of the more famous people on hand? Both Elaine and I came away from the Nancy Grace presentation far more favorably impressed by her. Besides really being a criminal prosecutor, she also offered some insights into what shows up on television: "If you knew how much evidence I can't talk about, it'd make your head spin." That had the ring of truth to it...and that's nice to find now and then.
I didn't get to ask all the questions I wanted. For example, I didn't think to ask Heloise (of the "Hints from..." columns, and a fellow Texan, BTW) "Is your husband like super neat? I always find those kinds of questions interesting, but there's always next year's conference in St. Petersburger Florida.
We left Sunday before the general membership meeting, in order to be "wheels up" before an expected line of strong thunderstorms and hail moved down into the middle Alabama area Sunday morning.
We had ,stopped at Auburn University's airport (KAUO on the charts) to wring our kidneys and stretch and I called the FAA flight briefers for an update. "Yes, that convective line is about 30 miles north of you and moving south at 35. Winds are gusting 50 knots and there's golfball-sized hail. How quickly can you be airborne? You won't be out of it until you're about 100-miles west..."
"Bye!" And we sprinted back to the plane and were airborne in 7-minutes. I've been a serious student of weather (from back in the sailing days) to know a risk I can manage versus one I can't. Golfball-sized hail is not good for cheap old airplane. Tail end of the crappy weather may linger in Alabama for a couple of days.
Which gets us to Vicksburg. After a string of greased on landings the whole trip, a runway change (from what departure said to expect and what the tower issued) in Meridian MS screwed up my timing, so that accounted for flaring out a bit high. Not a greaser, but an inspection revealed no sign of the landing gear on the top of the wings, either. OK, it wasn't that hard...
And coming into Vicksburg after playing "storm coward" all morning, I rediscovered that with the fancy vortex generators on the wings, setting down too early is not as easy if you've previously been flying a brick. When it turns "feather....' and STOL (which it does not) it resulted in the first go-round in ages but cowardice and flight safety are first cousins.
Still, flying more than 4 1/2 - 5 1/2 hours seems to be about when "the edge" wears off. Duly noted.
This morning, we're back at Riverwalk Casino ($49 a night) and recuperating while we await perfect flying weather Thursday. The food is great (read: inexpensive but good) and even though I'm not a big gambler (like living in Texas, third marriage, old, flying a small airplane, and being levered short in the market doesn't constitute a gambling problem?) the tour of the Civil War Memorial is something we both want to do and we'll update you on that later in the week.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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The
bordello part was on the upper floors and Diana (an ex-Texan, BTW) was kind
enough to take us on a tour. The second floor is in restoration and
one thing I didn't appreciate previously was that in most of these old Pre
Civil War buildings, the bricks were made on site.
